Monday’s MLB Betting Tips: Red-hot Mariners offence to deliver again

We’re looking to get off to a winning start to the week with our Monday night MLB tips, featuring several teams involved in fierce battles for Playoff position. 

White Sox v Mariners

First pitch: 01:10am Tuesday

The Seattle Mariners have surged over the last month or so to force their way into the Wildcard mix. Monday night sees them send their ace to the mound in Luis Castillo, who is backed up by the league’s second-best offence (according to wRC+) since 21st July. 

Seattle faces Touki Toussaint, who has allowed 11 earned runs over his last three starts. Toussaint has pretty uninspiring underlying metrics across the board, including one of the worst walk rates in the Majors, and rarely generating chases. Giving up walks is a real issue against a Mariners team with this kind of pop – they are third in isolated power over the last month.

The Mariners have scored over 5.5 runs in six of their last seven games. This line up is one of the most destructive in baseball right now, and should be able to do plenty of damage against Toussaint before adding a couple more runs off the White Sox bullpen. 

Prediction: Mariners over 5.5 total runs @ 2.14

Astros v Red Sox

First pitch: 01:10am Tuesday

The Red Sox completed a weekend sweep of the Yankees, while the Astros were swept by the Seattle Mariners. Both teams are in the midst of a congested postseason race in the American League, and the outcome of this series could have a major impact on their Playoff chances.

The series opens up with James Paxton against Cristian Javier. Paxton enters this one on the back of two very strong starts, conceding just two earned runs over 11.1 innings against the Nationals and Royals. Houston has a more fearsome line up, of course, but the big left hander has been pitching well of late.

Javier, meanwhile, has a brutal 5.65 ERA in August. Boston might only have a 96 wRC+ this month, but there have been signs of progress lately with 29 runs scored over their last four games. 

There is a bit of concern about the Red Sox bullpen holding onto a lead, but we still like their chances of recording a win here. They have been a profitable underdog all year long, going 33-28 in such matchups. 

Prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline @ 2.28

Athletics v Royals

First pitch: 02:40am Tuesday

The two worst teams in the big leagues facing off isn’t exactly a tantalising matchup for the neutrals. It is, however, a good opportunity to land some value on Monday night with Oakland sending Paul Blackburn to the hill.

Blackburn has been one of very few positives for the Athletics this season, and pitched seven shutout frames against the Cardinals last time out. He excels at limiting hard contact and owns a 3.87 xERA on the year.

Kansas City has played better baseball since the break, and has a league average offence over the last month. They have still lost five of their last six. Their pitching situation is unclear for this one – Tucker Davidson, with an ERA starting with six, is serving as the opener. 

The Royals might be marginally the better team on the season, but we like Oakland’s chances behind Blackburn given that they have gone 7-6 in his 2023 starts. 

Prediction: Oakland Athletics moneyline @ 1.90

Recommended bets

White Sox v Mariners: Mariners over 5.5 total runs @ 2.14
Astros v Red Sox: Boston Red Sox moneyline @ 2.28
Athletics v Royals: Oakland Athletics moneyline @ 1.90