MLB Post-Season Preview and Betting Guide
By Sam Cox
Latest MLB Odds2 October 2023
The MLB postseason gets underway on Tuesday with the first set of Wild Card games. Four of the 12 remaining teams (Orioles, Astros, Braves, Dodgers) have the luxury of a bye to the Division Series, while the other eight franchises are playing best-of-three series to determine which four progress.
Coming off an historic regular season, the Atlanta Braves are priced as 4.20 favourites to win the 2023 Fall Classic. Atlanta has the benefit of home field advantage throughout the postseason, and deserves to top the odds. There are no guarantees in the MLB Playoffs, though, as regular season dominance does not necessarily equate to postseason success.
While Atlanta is clearly the best team on paper, it is far from a foregone conclusion that they run through the National League. The Phillies and Nationals are just two examples in recent years of NL teams getting hot at the right time to overcome supposedly superior opponents. Philadelphia is a candidate to do so again after putting up a 65-37 run – they have a solid to good rotation and one of the best offences in baseball. They are the shortest price of all the Wild Card teams.
Houston, who have reached the World Series in four of the last five full seasons, are the second favourites at 5.70, ahead of the Dodgers (6.00) and Orioles (8.40).
Braves are a Juggernaut
Atlanta comfortably led the sport in wRC+ at 124. Their team xwOBA allowed might have ranked 13th, but their pitching staff is clearly deep enough to cope with the challenges of the postseason. Spencer Strider and Max Fried are a formidable one-two punch, followed by Bryce Elder, Charlie Morton and a solid bullpen.
While the Dodgers joined Atlanta in the 100-win club, Los Angeles’ price looks far too short with their pitching injuries. It’s a team blessed with Playoff experience and star power, but they probably don’t have the arms to add a second World Series in four years.
It would be foolish to write off the Astros, who have so regularly delivered in October. Houston has its own pitching concerns, however, with some uncertainty behind Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.
Baltimore has been a brilliant story this season, winning the AL East and seeing their young core flourish. It still feels a year too early. It might seem harsh after putting up 101 wins, but the 8.40 price represents where this Orioles team is at even with a stacked, high-upside offence.
Wild Card Contenders
The Phillies should overcome the Marlins, setting up a mouth-watering Division Series with the Braves. Punters are going to be tempted to take the Phils at 13.50, and with good reason. Their offence is capable of outscoring anyone, and they could out-pitch the Braves in a short series. Philadelphia represents solid value among the Wild Card teams.
Elsewhere, Texas has the benefit of facing a Rays team without multiple starting pitchers. The Rangers have been a bit of a streaky team down the stretch, but there’s no doubting that offence. If they get past Tampa, it’s a matchup with the Orioles, which the Rangers will surely fancy their chances in.
You can talk yourself into any team in the American League. Texas, who played at an elite level for much of the season, look to have a favourable path to the Championship Series. At 14.00, there’s value there.
Of the relative outsiders in the Wild Card round, the highly talented Toronto Blue Jays are worth considering at 17.50. Their line up might not have been at its destructive best in the regular season, but we know they can get hot and really torment opposing pitchers. Led by Kevin Gausman, that rotation could get rolling, too.