Friday’s MLB Tips: Burnes can outduel Ashcraft in crucial Central contest

The MLB season resumes after the All-Star break on Friday night, and punters have a packed slate to get stuck into.

Several aces will face off and there are plenty of crucial divisional matchups. Baseball expert Sam Cox has identified the three best bets for Friday night’s action.

Orioles v Marlins

First pitch: 12.05am Saturday

Among pitchers to throw over 80 innings, Sandy Alcantara and Dean Kremer are two of the least effective arms in the big leagues. That’s despite Kremer stunning the Yankees and Alcantara pitching 6.2 strong innings against the Phillies before the break.

I’m viewing those two starts as an exception to the rule for these pitchers as Alcantara is having a difficult year with a 4.72 ERA and a 4.35 xERA, while Kremer’s xERA is a whopping 5.64. 

Over the last month, these two teams are above league average offensively. The biggest case in point is that Baltimore has scored the sixth-most runs in the first five innings. As a result, there’s great value in over 4.5 runs across the first five frames here. 

Prediction: Over 4.5 runs in the first five innings @ 1.9

Reds v Brewers

First pitch: 12.10am Saturday

The Cincinnati Reds lost two of their three games against the Milwaukee Brewers before the break and now just one win separates the two ballclubs at the top of the National League Central. While the Reds are on a 30-13 run, the Brewers have played at a relatively consistent pace for much of the year.

Milwaukee sends Corbin Burnes to the mound on Friday after the veteran outduelled Andrew Abbott seven days ago. Burnes has not been at his dominant best in 2023, with his strikeout rate dropping considerably and hitters making a lot more hard contact. He has, however, allowed only four earned runs across 13 innings this month.

Meanwhile, Graham Ashcraft (ERA 6.28) gets the ball for the Reds. Despite posting two consecutive strong starts, Ashcraft has his work cut out against a Brewers offence which smashed him for 10 earned runs in four innings earlier this season. 

This Milwaukee offence isn’t exactly potent (ranks 25th in wRC+) but they have scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games and should be able to get to Ashcraft early on. Burnes is coming off an excellent outing against this line up – and there’s good value backing the Brewers to lead after five.

Prediction: Brewers -0.5 innings 1 to 5 @ 1.99

Rockies v Yankees

First pitch: 12.40am Saturday

The Yankees face Austin Gomber at Coors Field with an opportunity to boost their offensive numbers. Gomber has the third-lowest fWAR among National League starters due to a 6.40 ERA. His xERA also starts with a six. While the leftie had a few decent starts before the hiatus, he is in for a tough night in Denver. 

New York’s line up remains up-and-down, but there were signs of improvement over the last month. Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees have the offence to get Gomber into trouble.

The Rockies starter has a hard-hit rate of almost 40%, and only Aaron Nola has conceded more homers among NL arms. This line might seem on the high side, but the Yankees have hit a bit better than their results indicate according to their contact metrics and Coors is obviously a huge factor. 

Prediction: Yankees over 6.5 runs @ 1.88

Friday’s MLB Tips

Orioles v Marlins: Over 4.5 runs in the first five innings @ 1.9
Reds v Brewers: Brewers -0.5 innings 1 to 5 @ 1.99
Rockies v Yankees: Yankees over 6.5 runs @ 1.88