Dolphins v Bengals Tips: The Fins defence could blitz to victory again
By Jack Goddard
Latest Dolphins v Bengals Odds28 September 2022
The Miami Dolphins travel to Paycor Stadium for Thursday Night Football after their statement defeat of the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Can the Fins strengthen their Super Bowl credentials further by toppling last year’s AFC Champions?
Mike McDaniels’ side make the trip north west as the only undefeated team in the AFC, and one of only two sides - along with the Philadelphia Eagles - who are yet to lose a game in the whole NFL this season.
The Cincinnati Bengals will host this matchup with renewed confidence of their own after a 27-12 win against the New York Jets finally got their season started. Joe Burrow made a return to last season’s form by throwing for 275 yards and scoring three touchdowns without an interception. Who would have thought that Joey B might still play well when he’s not constantly being sacked?
Terrific Tua
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may be in the midst of his breakout season. He had a modest stat line on Sunday, passing for 186 yards and a touchdown while struggling with a back issue, but his game management and command of the offence was a key factor in the Fins’ huge win.
The young signal caller’s season stats are much more impressive. Tua has a passer rating over three games of 117.8, and is on pace for 5,242 yards and 45 touchdowns on the year (he currently sits on 925 yards and eight TDs).
Miami’s defence were the real stars of the show against the Bills, however, after they spent a whopping 90 snaps (equating to 40 minutes and 40 seconds) on the field. They managed to just about hold firm under intense pressure.
The Dolphs were so penned in that punter Thomas Morstead ended up kicking the ball against teammate Trent Sherfield and out of the back of the end zone with seconds remaining (this has already been labelled ‘The Butt Punt’) but they held out after that for a two-point win.
Blitzing quarterback Josh Allen as much as possible succeeded. Emmanuel Ogbah created seven QB pressures, while Melvin Ingram pressured Allen five times and sacked him twice. Which leads us nicely onto the Bengals.
Sack race
Joe Burrow was significantly better protected by his teammates against the Jets, but was still brought down twice, meaning he has now been sacked a staggering 15 times this season.
Cincinnati’s signal caller was sacked a league-high 51 times last term, leading to a complete overhaul of the offensive line. But that doesn’t appear to have helped him stay upright - at their current rate, the Bengals are set to allow 85 sacks this year.
Their only hope is that the Dolphins defence, which is coming off a short week and a 90-snap game, might not be as rested as they’d like against an offensive line that they would otherwise feast upon.
Cincy’s defensive line had some fun of its own at the weekend too. An honourable mention to Trey Hendrickson, who came away with 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, four tackles and four quarterback hits. Don’t be mistaken into thinking the Fins will have it all their own way.
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If Burrow is able to get the ball out, his teammates will surely profit. While Miami might boast the best duo of receivers in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Cincinnati arguably possess the most talented trio.
Second-year superstar Ja’Marr Chase is the team’s number one receiving option, although he was kept relatively quiet by the Jets: Dolphins cornerback Xavier Howard will be pleased if he keeps Chase to as few as 29 yards again.
However, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are always capable of stepping up when the main man is out of contention. They saw plenty of the ball on Sunday, with 198 receiving yards and a touchdown between them.
High-power plays
With two top-tier quarterbacks and outstanding receivers on each side of the ball, this contest could see plenty of explosive plays. With Miami averaging almost 28 points per game this year, and the Bengals scoring at just over 21 and looking to improve, over 45.5 points at 1.72 looks to be good value - as long as the key offensive players are healthy.
Tagovailoa toiled through the second half of Sunday’s game due to a back injury sustained on the field, while Waddle and Higgins could potentially also miss the match-up with groin and toe issues respectively.
If all their main players are fit, it’s hard to look beyond the Dolphins at their price. The Bengals have been horribly patchy this season, and, after taking care of the Bills, Miami should be viewed as a serious contender this year. Considering the pressure on Josh Allen last week, Burrow will be lucky to spend even half of this match upright.