Rugby World Cup Final Preview: South Africa to edge out New Zealand in tense final

Rugby’s World Cup has reached its climax. After seven weeks of fantastic rugby, we are now preparing for the final. 

The sport’s two most successful teams will go head-to-head on Saturday night at the Stade de France in Paris as they both look to become the first team to lift the World Cup on four occasions.

The History

New Zealand won the first tournament in 1987 and then back-to-back in 2011 and 2015. On the other hand, South Africa are the reigning champions and won the tournament in 1995, 2007 and 2019. It has been 20 years since another team won the World Cup.

South Africa have won all three of the finals they have competed in and remarkably never conceded a try. The history points towards the Springboks as well. In 2007, they came out on top against England in the same stadium as this final, and in 1995, they beat New Zealand in the final to claim their first World Cup.

The 1995 tournament was played in South Africa and was the first major international sporting event to be held in the country after the end of the apartheid regime. 

South Africa defied the odds to come out on top over New Zealand in the first final which went to extra time, thanks to a Joel Stransky drop goal. Their feat was immortalised in the 2009 film Invictus starring Matt Damon and Morgan Freeman.

Pre-tournament form also favours South Africa. Just two weeks before the Rugby World Cup, the Springboks inflicted the All Blacks record defeat with a 35-7 drubbing at Twickenham. 

Tournament Form

This is where New Zealand will start to gain some confidence. After an opening night defeat to France they have been untouchable.

They have the highest points differential of any team in the tournament, thanks to some breath-taking attacking displays in the group stage. They were brilliant to upset the odds and beat Ireland 28-24 and were in cruise control in their 44-6 semi-final over Argentina. 

They have a great blend of experience and exciting youth. Seven of their squad are veterans of the 2015 World Cup win. Scrum-half Aaron Smith and full-back Beadan Barrett both played in the final in 2015 and will be vitally important on Saturday night. 

Winger Will Jordan, has scored a record-equally eight tries this tournament, helped with a semi-final hat-trick. Could he be the man to finally end South Africa’s run of not conceding tries in finals.

South Africa have been the kings of the close game in the knockout stages. They scraped past France by one point in the quarter final before beating England via a 78th minute scrum penalty.

They were expected to beat England with ease on Saturday, but they ran into an incredible performance from the Red Rose. England were brilliant for the majority of the contest, but the South African substitutes changed the game, particularly at the scrum, and England were unable to hold on. 

That, combined with the game against France, will have taken a lot out of the Springboks. The Springbok hooker, Bongi Mbonambi, will be playing in the final. His place had been in doubt after England’s Tom Curry alleged he had been racially abused by Mbonambi. A World Rugby investigation cleared him to play this morning after ruling there was insufficient evidence to find him guilty.

Prediction 

Throughout this week, the prices have gradually moved further apart. The All Blacks have shortened from 2.04 to 1.9 and the Springboks have lengthened from 2.3 to 2.2. Interestingly, the Mbonambi news hasn’t had much of an effect on the market. 

South Africa have gone for the 7-1 split on their bench. Seven forwards and one back. This gives a strong indication as to the type of game they are going to try and play. They are going to leave the flashy back play to the All Blacks and try and dominate a physical contest. They have also changed their half-back pair from the semi final from the more flashy Cobus Reinach and Manie Libbock to the more functional Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard. 

Their bench split gives them very little flexibility. When they were struggling against England they made wholesale changes in their backline to try and change the game - against New Zealand they won’t have the same opportunity.

I am very sure that it will be a tight contest. I also think it will likely be a low scoring affair, not a try fest. Remember South Africa have never conceded a try in a World Cup Final. My gut feeling is South Africa are going to edge over the line in this one. They have been brilliant at coming from behind in the knockout stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won another tight game.

Recommended Bet

Back South Africa to win @ 2.3