Rugby World Cup 2023: Outright market check in

As of last weekend we are halfway through the Rugby World Cup group stage, so we thought we would check in on how the five pre-tournament favourites are getting on. 

New Zealand - were 4.3, now 5.6

The All Blacks were the pre-tournament favourites at 4.3, but defeat at the hands of a spirited French side on the opening night put a slight dent in their hopes.

As I said before the tournament New Zealand are not quite the all-conquering country they have been for the majority of the past decade, their defeat to France was the first time ever they had lost a group game in any world cup.

Because of the nature of the draw they will have to play one of the two favourites (South Africa and Ireland) in the quarter-final, which as the odds suggest will be a very hard game. 

However, the All Blacks have plenty of big name players and an incredibly talented squad that can turn up and beat anyone on their day. They also have plenty of experience and know how to perform in big games. Despite a tricky start and a tough draw they cannot be ruled out.

I always thought they were poor value at 4.3, but at 5.6 they become more interesting. 

France - were 4.6, now 4.6

To say a nation is holding its breath is no exaggeration. During France’s 96-0 drubbing of Namibia, Antoine Dupont, the host’s talisman, leader and tournament poster boy was caught with a high tackle that broke his jaw. Dupont is one of the very best players in the world right now and is vital to France’s hopes. 

He has undergone surgery and is set to return to camp, there is hope he could be back for a quarter or semi-final. 

France’s strong performance on the opening night against New Zealand laid down a real marker for the other favourites in the tournament, but they will struggle to get far without Dupont. Like New Zealand, they will have to face one of South Africa and Ireland in a mouth-watering quarter final - this puts a slight dent in their hopes. 

They have a raucous home support behind them though and they will be an incredibly tough matchup for any opponent.

I would be hesitant to back them while there is still uncertainty about whether or not Dupont is going to feature again in the tournament.

South Africa - were 4.6, now 4.1

Despite being beaten by Ireland in a match for the ages on Saturday night, South Africa are still the tournament favourites and are an extremely daunting opponent for anyone.

They also won’t be that troubled by losing in the group stage. In 2019, they were convincingly beaten by the All Blacks in the groups only to go on and win the tournament. A lot of the team that won four years ago are here again and will know what they have to do to win it all. 

They will take a lot of confidence that despite only kicking 20% from the tee on Saturday night they still pushed Ireland to the final play of the game. 

Ireland - were 6.6, now 4.2 

The world’s number one side being fourth favourite always screamed value to me and they haven’t done anything to prove me wrong yet.

They were fantastic in the win against South Africa, matching their intensity is no mean feat but the Irish did for all 80 minutes. They had a few problems at the lineout but nothing that shouldn’t be able to iron out. 

You have to hope they do not get ahead of themselves now and become complacent, yes Saturday was exceptional but they haven’t actually won anything yet. If they want to top the group they still have to beat a Scotland side that is going to throw the kitchen sink and a whole lot more at them in two weeks time. 

I think they are worth their value at 4.2, the lack of tournament experience is the only drawback I see. Ireland have never made it past the quarter finals of a world cup.

Australia - were 16

The Aussies were always outsiders with a small hope of winning the tournament, but they now find themselves out. Defeats at the hands of both Fiji and Wales mean the Wallabies are on the first flight back home.