Millar's Method: Where to find value in the Juddmonte International?

The York Ebor meeting always provides high-class racing, here are my views on the first two days.

Wednesday 

3.35 Juddmonte International Stakes G1 1m2½f

What a race this is set to be! City Of Troy has divided opinion this season. He blew out badly in the 2000 Guineas before looking full of class in the Derby. Though of course there were a few dissenting voices who questioned the depth of the form. Those questions got louder after he failed to impress when scraping home in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown last time. So is he a certainty or is he vulnerable. 

Well, first things first, the only certainty when it comes to horses, let alone racehorses, is that the only certainty is that they are uncertain! This looks a deep race and he’ll definitely need to improve on his Sandown effort but that’s entirely possible. 

Ryan Moore was clear in his conviction that the race set-up and the soft ground conditions were against him, and pointed to a ‘wheel-spin’ moment on the home bend as being vitally important to the result suggesting that lost momentum there, at the bottom of the hill was a big disadvantage. 

The proximity of Al Riffa who was just a length-away, was used to knock the strength of the form, given he was only rated 114 and was conceding 10lb to City Of Troy. However, I felt he was given the best ride in the race, Dylan Browne McMonagle made no effort to win the race until the final furlong and rode him to pick up the pieces, where as City Of Troy first had to repel the persistent challenge of Ghostwriter before then digging deep to fend off the late Al Riffa challenge. It should also be noted that Al Riffa has since gone on to bag a German group one and looks a far better horse at four years of age than he was at three.

I think City Of Troy will win but at just over even money with SBK I’m happy to watch and I feel the each-way market makes far more sense when trying to find a selection.

Calandagan was impressive when winning the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, quickening up well from off the pace. He’ll clearly relish the ground but I’m not convinced that this drop in trip on an easier track will see him to his best.

I don’t think Bluestocking will quite have the pace on this ground over this trip and I’d be surprised if either Ghostwriter or Docklands had enough ability to win a race of this nature. Maljoom pulls at the heartstrings – I’m sure he has a big one in him, but trying to concede 7lb to the three-year olds looks a stiff task and that applies to Alflaila also.

So largely by process of elimination I arrive with Ambiente Friendly. He drops back in trip after looking a non-stayer in the Irish Derby last time. While he has a near four-lengths to find with City Of Troy from the Epsom Derby he definitely endured a less than smooth passage through the race yet still looked a real threat in the last three-furlongs before his effort petered out. He has to prove he’ll handle this faster ground and the continued booking of Rab Havlin smacks of defiance from the owners, though he does at least know the horse. He has plenty of scope to improve on what he’s shown so far and in my opinion is the most likely to chase home an on song City Of Troy or go one better should the favourite fail to fire. At 15/2 with SBK he rates a solid ew bet.

Selection: Ambiente Friendly E/W @ 15/2

Thursday

3.35 Yorkshire Oaks G1 1m4f

A race where it’s hard to look away from the head of the market.

Emily Upjohn quite simply hasn’t looked at her best this season, jockey Kieran Shoemark has also come in for plenty of criticism this year and his ride on her at Goodwood wasn’t vintage. She made very little ground regardless and simply looks ready for the next stage of her career in the paddocks. 

That said I’d love to see her bounce back, if only to laugh at the keyboard warriors. It’s not likely though.

Both Lava Stream, Mistral Star and Sea Theme look short of the required ability and will have to take their form to a significantly higher level to win this, while Port Fairy looks booked for pacemaker duty, as she was last time in the Irish Oaks. That leaves us with Queen Of The Pride, Content and You Got To Me.

Queen Of The Pride has arguably been the standout performer this season for a Gosden yard that lacks real start talent. She’s been well placed to bag a duo of Haydock group three’s and was visually impressive when coming from off the pace last time. A strong gallop will suit her well but having to concede 9lb to the two younger fillies looks a sizeable question.

You Got To Me and Content finished first and second in the Irish Oaks last time, however backers of Content will be ruing the fact that under a rare poor Ryan Moore ride Content was given plenty to do in the closing stages. 

Conversely Hector Crouch gave the winner an excellent ride riding her positively to make use of her proven stamina from a long way out despite her appearing to lack a gear of speed.

Poor Ryan Moore rides are a thing of scarcity and in this smaller field he’s less likely to encounter traffic, I’d be confident Content will reverse form with Ralph Beckett’s filly and she can bag a first group one success.

Selection: Content @ 11/4 

Recommended Bets

Back Ambiente Friendly E/W @ 15/2
Back Content @ 11/4