York’s Ebor Festival Tips: Tom Collins provides his best value bets on the first two days

Just four runners were declared for Wednesday’s Group 1 Juddmonte International, so surely even the most undisciplined punter will look elsewhere for a good value bet on the York card.

As much as I enjoy watching Paddington run - and he’s done it a fair bit in the last three months! - it’s difficult to believe that he can continue to fire at his best after five quickfire appearances. Anything in the region of sub-120 would put him in danger and therefore I don’t think he can be considered a ‘good thing’ at around 4/7, especially when you factor in the small field.

He’s facing off against Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winner Mostahdaf, who definitely can’t be written off given his impressive Ascot success and quality record in small-field contests, and Nashwa, who might just need the likely good ground on the Knavesmire. All-in-all, there are better and safer opportunities to try to win some money early on at this Ebor Festival.

Short-priced punters are advised to look at the Group 2 Great Voltigeur (3.00) for a solid favourite, which comes in the form of unbeaten three-year-old colt Gregory. 

John and Thady Gosden’s son of Golden Horn is bred for a real stamina test, so much so that he will be a contender in the Ascot Gold Cup further down the line, but I have no concerns about this drop back in trip to 1m4f given his form prior to the Queen’s Vase victory.

Talking of the Queen’s Vase, he was ultra impressive despite beating what appeared to be a sub-par group. Gregory fluffed the start but showed bright early pace and wonderful tactical speed for a stayer, eventually holding off Saint George in a thrilling but ultimately one-sided finish.

He has improved after every start and further progression should make him very tough to beat, even though he has to give away 3lb to his rivals. The long homestraight at York should bring out the best in him and he’s more mature than chief market rival Continuous. The rest are yet to prove that they are good enough.

Two other horses stand out on Wednesday’s card. The first is Designer, who will look for back-to-back victories in the 5f Irish Fillies’ Handicap (4.45) after bolting up last year off a mark of 87.

She’s just 5lb higher this time after failing to win in six subsequent starts, but she performed well in a Listed event at Bath to start this season before looking like an obvious future winner when an unlucky fourth at Glorious Goodwood earlier in the month. 

I think it’s fair to assume that target trainer John Butler has aimed her here all year and the booking of William Buick adds further confidence. I don’t love her draw, but this race has only attracted a medium-sized field so it shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience. 

I will also give one last chance to Barnwell Boy, who is a huge price in Wednesday’s closing 6f Nursery (5.20) for trainer Charlie Johnston. This colt caught my eye with an emphatic debut display at Goodwood back in May, but he has failed to back it up with down-the-field finishes at Royal Ascot and the Glorious meeting since.

He had track bias excuses on both occasions - he raced furthest away from the desired stands’ side rail last time, while he had no cover or lead horse in the final two furlongs at Ascot - and there’s a good chance that he’s better than he has shown. The traders are completely writing him off at 22/1, but jumping ship this early could be foolish as he steps back up in trip on handicap debut.

Onto Thursday now and the Group 1 Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks (3.35), a race that has been dominated by three-year-olds in recent years with seven winners from the last nine renewals.

Both Savethelastdance and Bluestocking, who finished first and second respectively in the Irish Oaks, will be trying to enhance that record. I respect both of them, but the former desperately needs a late downpour or two while Bluestocking is short given she’s only won a maiden.

The value at this stage is surely 9/2 on Free Wind, who progressed into a really nice staying filly in 2021 and came off a long layoff to strengthen those opinions when she beat Sea La Rosa in her sole start as a four-year-old last term. 

This year has been a bit more hit-and-miss - she was reportedly flat when a poor fifth in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, while the extremely testing ground and longer distance clearly didn’t suit her last time at Goodwood. But writing off talented horses after a couple of forgivable runs isn’t in my strategy and I’ll trust that a return to something like her best will put her bang there under Frankie Dettori.

Finally, we move onto what I hope is a handicap blot. William Haggas has had great success with three-year-olds at York in recent years (15/69, 22%) and that stat can be boosted by Unequal Love in the 7f Fillies’ Handicap on Thursday.

This daughter of Dutch Art is steadily progressing up the ranks and has frankly had things her own way on each of her last three outings. In a classic Haggas ploy, she now takes a notable step up in class off a lenient-looking mark of 90 (she’s already run to 98) in search of a big prize.

There is no doubt that Ralph Beckett’s Nigiri is similarly unexposed and well treated, but we haven’t seen anything like Unequal Love’s ceiling just yet and I will be disappointed if she doesn’t make it four in a row under Tom Marquand.

York Ebor Festival Tips

Gregory (3.00 York, Wednesday) @ 11/8
Designer (4.45 York, Wednesday) @ 9/2
Barnwell Boy (5.20 York, Wednesday) @ 22/1
Free Wind (3.35 York, Thursday) @ 9/2
Unequal Love (5.20 York, Thursday) @ 6/1