Race In Focus: Who will win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? Tom Collins has his say

Buckle up and get ready for Europe’s richest race as the Group 1 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe will light up your television on Sunday.

The buzz and anticipation heading into the Arc is always something to behold - aside from the Derby, no other European race on the level tends to generate as much excitement. And, even in a sub-par year, the countdown is contagious as the racing public keenly debate who will win at Longchamp come October.

Traders tend to believe this will be Luxembourg’s year - a phrase that has never been muttered in regards to football (sorry Red Lions fans!). Back to the horse, though. This son of Camelot has always been held in the highest regard by Aidan O’Brien and the team at Ballydoyle, which, to my mind, suggests that his homework and potential aren’t necessarily being replicated on the racetrack.

Now, obviously, this is a two-time Group 1-winner that I’m talking about, so he has clearly run to a pretty good level in just six career starts. But it’s not difficult, even for a non-form student, to find holes in those two top-level victories. 

He wasn’t visually impressive in last year’s Vertem Futurity, in which he beat Sissoko (unraced since) and Bayside Boy, whose sole subsequent victory came at Listed level earlier this month. Once you delve deeper and realise that the fourth has moved yards and disappointed recently; fifth-home Imperial Fighter is winless in three attempts since, while Mctigue (sixth) is now hurdling, it’s easy to conclude that it wasn’t a great race.

Luxembourg returned this year with a highly creditable run when third in the 2,000 Guineas behind the ill-fated Coroebus and Native Trail, but then looked subdued in winning the Royal Whip, a performance that earned him a RPR of just 111. He clearly bounced back in the Irish Champion Stakes, but he ground out success rather than producing a wicked turn of foot, while also boasting track advantage over his two main dangers, Mishriff and Vadeni.

I believe that he was flattered by that result and, although he still has to be considered a major player given his connections and lightly raced profile, he is far too short in the betting in a wide-open edition of the Arc.

Alpinista (right): is sure to be popular in the Arc for Sir Mark Prescott

Making a case for last year’s winner Torquator Tasso is simple, but his draw in stall 18 is far from ideal. That will mean Alpinista, who has won her last seven races, will have plenty of supporters. However, her career-best RPR is just 121. All of the last ten Arc winners have run to a higher level than Alpinista has ever achieved, and, despite this not being a red-letter renewal, another step forward will be required for her to succeed.

Much like Torquator Tasso, the draw has hindered Mishriff (stall 17) and Japanese raider Stay Foolish (20), who should lead this field early. His fellow Asian entrant Titleholder looks a real player, but cross-comparing European and Japanese form is supremely difficult and the deep ground is enough to make me look elsewhere. 

That left me with the aforementioned Vadeni, who possesses one of the best pieces of form on offer courtesy of his five-length demolition job in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club back in June. Jean-Claude Rouget’s three-year-old stuffed subsequent Group 1 winners Modern Games and Onesto that day, before beating the best England had to offer in the Eclipse at Sandown.

His only subsequent outing came in the Irish Champion, but that race didn’t pan out ideally as he didn’t have as clear a passage as Christophe Soumillon would have wanted. Some suggested he should have won, but that’s complete nonsense. He lost a touch of momentum by angling towards the rail, but he wasn’t closing quick enough to beat Luxembourg regardless.

Nevertheless, I fancy him to reverse the form now that plenty is in his favour. Vadeni seems to require four factors to be at his best: a decent gallop, soft ground, a good draw and a patient ride. Put a tick in every box. What’s more, he would probably come close to sharing favouritism had he not lost his win streak at Leopardstown.

The only worry is the trip for Vadeni, who isn’t proven beyond 1m2f. But that seems to have been factored into his price and I’m willing to take the chance that he will explode to the front inside the final furlong. Hopefully Soumillon’s crazy antics on Friday (banned for two months following an idiotic incident) won’t have affected his mindset going into Sunday’s big race.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe bets

Vadeni @ 9.2