Tuesday’s Horse Racing Tips: Boxing Day runner-up set to go one better

I woke up on Boxing Day with the aim of landing a decent punt on a horse at Wetherby called Sporting Mike - a last-time-out Southwell winner for Ben Pauling. Close but no cigar, as they say.

No matter how strongly you fancy a horse (my analysis on the SBK Betting Podcast was best described as ‘bullish’), they are never guaranteed to cross the line in front. That’s all part and parcel of horse racing - anything can happen - but Sporting Mike’s half-length defeat left me frustrated and wanting a re-run. I will get my money back next time, was my initial thought.

The scopey six-year-old was ridden as though he was the best horse in the race - and he was, by some considerable margin. However, this was a classic case of complicating something that should have been simple. Sporting Mike spotted his chief rivals a full ten lengths down the back and still had half that distance to make up as the field quickened turning into the straight. He picked up willingly and drew four-and-a-half lengths clear of the third-placed finisher, but he just couldn’t claw back a better-ridden rival.

A mark of 111 was clearly lenient and it’s unsurprising that the handicapper has subsequently hit him with a further 6lb rise, but I’m still willing to back Sporting Mike as he lines up in the 2m3½f handicap hurdle (3.00) at Doncaster on Tuesday.

This son of Walk In The Park will be seen to best effect over three miles in time, but his last two runs indicate that he’s more than capable of racking up consistent performances over this shorter trip. He’s a strong traveller with the necessary ability to go up through the gears late in his races, which makes him versatile. 

His last two starts have come on ground with good in the description, so the going at Doncaster appears ideal. And, although this race is tougher than the one he contested over the festive period, I remain of the opinion that he’s a 130 horse who is yet to be correctly assessed.

Course-and-distance winner Tommy Cullen and Oliver Sherwood’s lightly raced Maclaine were considered, but the former faces much stronger opposition here while the latter can take a keen hold and jump to his right. Hopefully Sporting Mike has too much class and can make amends for his unfortunate Boxing Day defeat.

Turn of foot is critical

The simplest way to understand numerical rating systems is to acknowledge that the lower the number, the slower the horse. For example, a legitimate 100-rated sprinter is far quicker than a seasoned 70-rated sprinter. This synopsis works for both flat and jumps racing, although it is more consistent on the level due to fewer imponderables (jumping, stamina etc).

When it comes to low-grade handicaps, especially those run over staying distances, the general overview is that each and every horse in the field will lack ‘pace’ in the form of a turn of foot or a high cruising speed. Finding an exception puts you on the right path to backing a winner.

Southwell’s penultimate 2m½f handicap (8.00) will be contested by 11 horses rated between 46 and 60. There is very little recent form on offer, and the majority have tried hurdling or contested bumpers in the past in order to try and exploit their stamina.

One of the exceptions is Mark Usher’s Bird For Life, who is in a rich vein of form at the moment with three victories from her last five outings. Unlike most of her rivals here, Bird For Life possesses a change of gear and her form against the reopposing Zuckerberg and Smart Boyo gives her logical winning claims. However, she’s a notoriously slow starter and now finds herself running off a mark of 57 - she is just 2/31 off this rating or higher in her career.

I much prefer the claims of Gentle Fire, who undoubtedly boasts the best acceleration in this field. Sam Drinkwater’s seven-year-old is rated just 50, but she’s only run five times on the flat and just two of those have come over anything like an ideal trip.

This bumper winner returned from a 68-day layoff to run out an impressive winner over 1m6f at Wolverhampton last week, and justified strong market support in the process. She travelled notably well throughout the contest, before bursting between rivals while rounding the home bend to strike the front with plenty in the tank.

Gently Fire will run off just 4lb higher here and, providing she copes with the quick turnaround, it is hard to see any of these rivals matching her around two-and-a-half furlongs out when jockey Daniel Muscutt quickens the tempo.

Tuesday’s Horse Racing Tips

Sporting Mike (3.00 Doncaster) @ 6.2
Gentle Fire (8.00 Southwell) @ 2.7