Tuesday Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins has two all-weather fancies

Freezing temperatures and overnight frost has forced the abandonment of jumps cards at Wincanton and Catterick on Tuesday, which leaves punters with just two all-weather fixtures at Southwell and Wolverhampton.

The former is the sole afternoon offering - and it’s certainly not a meeting that I will be looking to make some Christmas money on. Only one race interests me from a punting perspective, and that is largely due to a lack of depth and potential vulnerability of the likely market leader.

The race in question is the 1m3f handicap (2.43 Southwell), in which Jacks Profit is forecast to head the betting after his half-length victory over a furlong further at Kempton 15 days ago. David Evans’ three-year-old appeared to improve for the re-fitting of a visor and, although he was under pressure from some way out, he galloped on resolutely to win under Sean Levey.

Jacks Profit has been hit with a 3lb rise for that success, which puts him up to a mark of 65. His form figures when rated 63 or higher read 73574 and, although his Kempton RPR (72) suggests he’s got more in the locker, there is a good chance that the headgear won’t elicit as much progression this time around. Couple that with the unfavourable drop in trip and switch to Southwell, and he looks perfectly beatable.

Peter Chapple-Hyam’s topweight, Franco Grasso, is bred to be much better than this level and warrants respect after a good reappearance run at Kempton. However, he regularly shapes as if he wants a longer trip than this and Chapple-Hyam’s 155-day drought without a winner is concerning.

Consequently, the best option is Lednikov. This former French-trained four-year-old has improved for the step up to middle distances (form figures of 13321 over trips further than 1m2f) and he stayed on stoutly to cross the line in front over 1m4f here last time out. He was subsequently demoted to second after a late bump with Amourie, who won again here on Friday. Third-home Prince Abu has also scored since.

Lednikov races off 4lb higher here, which makes his task a little tougher, but he should be able to gain a prominent early position and I fancy him to see off his rivals in the closing stages.

Another horse with good recent course form is Follow Your Heart, who returns to Wolverhampton for the 7f handicap (6.45) that closes their card. 

Mark Loughnane’s four-year-old has run well on all three starts at the track and perhaps should have made it two wins from three career visits here in November, but he was narrowly denied by a short head after suffering interference in the homestraight. 

Follow Your Heart was helped by a fast pace on his sole subsequent start at Kempton, so perhaps the result flattered him a bit, but he nevertheless ran very well to finish second behind a horse who was clearly well-treated and also received the perfect tow into the contest.

Although he’s running in the same grade, Follow Your Heart seems to have been found a weaker event and Billy Loughnane’s 7lb claim will certainly help his cause. Stall 11 is the biggest worry given the short run to the first bend over this trip, but he broke from a similar poor berth (stall 12) when he was runner-up over this course-and-distance two starts back. His tactical speed will allow Loughnane to find the best possible slot early on.

Tuesday All-Weather Tips

Lednikov (2.43 Southwell) @ 3.75
Follow Your Heart (6.45 Wolverhampton) @ 5.4