Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins provides his Royal Ascot final day fancies

Four days down, one to go. Royal Ascot 2024 has been an incredible spectacle with perfect summer ground, big fields, and a variety of success for up-and-comers and the elites. 

From a punting perspective, Royal Ascot is always difficult due to the number of variables, whether that be the likelihood of getting a clear passage, being on the right side of the track, or bumping into several others who are equally well handicapped. It’s all about fine margins and therefore predicting outcomes is undoubtedly trickier than for a standard Saturday card.

No matter how your week has gone to this point, there are still seven races left to either increase your profit or salvage some of the losses. We open with the Chesham Stakes (2.30 Royal Ascot), which is usually one of the toughest two-year-old events to get right due to lack of form on offer and intermediate trip.

Only four favourites have won the Chesham in the last decade, all of which were trained by Aidan O’Brien and sent off at very short prices. Bedtime Story, who has a beautiful pedigree, will look to enhance that statistic, but this certainly isn’t a one horse race with a number of other interesting contenders in the field. I would be virtually guessing if I put a horse up, so I’ll skip the Chesham and move on.

The Hardwicke (3.05 Royal Ascot) could be one of the races of the week with several improving middle-distance horses set to face off. Continuous looks like the next globetrotting star on the conveyor belt for team Ballydoyle and it would be no surprise if he was given an international campaign much like we saw with Highland Reel a few years back. Whether he’s good enough to win this after a 265-day layoff is another matter.

Middle Earth and Desert Hero ran in the Group 3 Aston Park at Newbury last time and produced polarising performances. The former was ultra impressive as he burst through in the final furlong to claim the prize, while the latter could only finish fifth at short odds. If Desert Hero bounces back then he’s a major player, but, again, there are too many question marks and a lack of value on offer for me to play this race.

Now we move onto the betting races. First up we have the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (3.45 Royal Ascot), which usually attracts a big, competitive field but this year has fallen short on both quality and quantity.

Mill Stream holds narrow favouritism over Kinross, but I’m dubious about whether those two horses will be seen at their best on Saturday. Kinross is an out-and-out seven-furlong specialist (8/14 over that trip compared to 2/14 over other distances) and doesn’t have a great record fresh, while Mill Stream has come unstuck at Group 1 level on his two attempts thus far and can be keen.

I’m more interested in Shartrash and Mitbaahy, and the latter just edges it for me despite his poor draw in stall one. It was hard not to be impressed with his wicked change of gear en route to victory at the Curragh last time, and he seems to have drastically improved since switching yards to join Charlie Hills over the winter.

We all know that Jamie Spencer is a master in these sprint events on the straight course at Ascot, so hopefully he can find some cover and use that potent turn of foot in the latter stages.

The Jersey Stakes (4.25 Royal Ascot) is up next. You generally need to run to a mark of around 115 to win this Group 3 prize and two horses have already proved they are capable of doing just that: Haatem and River Tiber.

The pair were last seen finishing second and third respectively in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, the form of which was given a huge boost earlier in the week when eventual winner Rosallion won a hot-looking St James’s Palace Stakes.  

I’m going to side with the market here and back River Tiber to reverse the placings with Richard Hannon’s runner. He was a cracking two-year-old last year and firmly put Haatem in his place when winning the Coventry, yet many seemed a bit downbeat on him when he ended his campaign with two defeats.

Aidan O’Brien was keen to point out that the setback he suffered in midsummer notably affected his work at home, which seemed a pretty valid excuse for a couple of slightly below-par runs. Haatem had the benefit of two recent races when he matched up against River Tiber in Ireland, yet only a length-and-a-quarter separated the pair at the line. Back to an ideal trip of seven furlongs, Ryan Moore can add another winner to his tally.

The Wokingham (5.05 Royal Ascot) is up next - not something you want to hear if you’re enduring a tough afternoon! Trends tell you that middle or near-side is the place to be, so I would be focussing on those drawn high.

I’m going to back two runners, the first of which is Albasheer for trainer Archie Watson and rider Hollie Doyle. This Shadwell cast-off danced all the big dances last year and was surprisingly consistent. His highlight was a victory at York, but he wasn’t beaten far in the Sprint Trophy, Ayr Gold Cup, Stewards’ Cup or in the Scurry. 

He also finished 11th in this 12 months ago, when he set himself an almighty task after missing the break. A quick glance at the sectionals from that edition tell you that he finished his race off faster than any other horse in the field, which is a big asset on this stiff track. He’s not the easiest of rides but Hollie Doyle knows him well and it looks like he’s been targeted at the event.

Albasheer races off 10lb higher in the weights this time around, but he has undoubtedly improved in the interim and has drawn well in stall 31.

 Another horse worthy of a second look is Rumstar, who is around 25/1 at the time of writing. Johnny Portman’s four-year-old doesn’t have the most appealing form figures so should be relatively tepid in the market, yet he could be one of the class acts in this year’s renewal. 

Rumstar was only beaten two-and-a-half lengths by Shaquille and Little Big Bear in last year’s Group 1 Commonwealth Cup and he backed that up with a fine run at Group 3 level at Goodwood. He was gelded over the winter, needed the run on his reappearance, before shaping well at Newbury last time. He appeals to me off a mark of 104.

After looking at the Golden Gates Handicap (5.40 Royal Ascot) and deciding that about eight of the runners were 10lb well-in, I quickly moved onto the closing Queen Alexandra Stakes (6.15), a unique 2m5½f test that closes out the royal meeting.

In my opinion, the most important factor to consider when choosing your runner in this race is proven stamina at the distance. There aren’t many flat races run over this far and questionable stamina is not something I want to toy with here.

 As a result, I will be betting last year’s winner Dawn Rising, who has been campaigned with this race in mind. The JP McManus-owned seven-year-old justified strong support to end the meeting on a high for punters last year and now returns to Ascot after a very similar preparation.

Replay watchers of that race may believe Run For Oscar will reverse the form given his slightly unlucky passage, but Dawn Rising was extremely strong at the line and I’m certain that, even with a clear run, Charles Byrnes’ participant wouldn’t have gone by. 

Although Ryan Moore isn’t on this time - he has to ride for Ballydoyle instead - it’s hardly a negative that William Buick takes over. Hopefully Dawn Rising can provide us a winner to end the 2024 Royal Ascot meeting.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Mitbaahy (3.45 Royal Ascot) @ 11/2
River Tiber (4.25 Royal Ascot) @ 6/4
Albasheer (5.05 Royal Ascot) @ 8/1
Rumstar (5.05 Royal Ascot) @ 14/1
Dawn Rising (6.15 Royal Ascot) @ 3/1