Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Chaldean is Tom Collins’s idea of the value play in the 2,000 Guineas

The 2023 Classics begin with the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, which will take centre stage on Saturday. Newmarket’s showpiece event for the colts will bring together a mixture of sprinters stepping up in trip and middle-distance prospects who have already showcased their ability at intermediate distances.

Punters keen on following historical trends should look no further than Aidan O’Brien’s entries as the master of Ballydoyle holds the record for most race victories with 10, which includes five winners in the last decade. 

His main hope this season appears to be Auguste Rodin given he is the choice of stable jockey Ryan Moore. This son of Japanese sire Deep Impact has followed a similar programme to O’Brien’s recent Guineas heroes and will try to enhance an already impressive strike-rate for Vertem Futurity winners in this contest.

Three of the last five winners of Doncaster’s two-year-old prize have subsequently plundered the 2,000 Guineas after their winter break, while one of the anomalies (Mac Swiney) struck in the Irish equivalent. The only horse in the given timeframe who failed to complete the double was Luxembourg, who finished third behind Coroebus and Native Trail 12 months ago.

There are similarities between Luxembourg and O’Brien’s representative this time around, though it’s fair to say that Auguste Rodin was far more impressive in the Vertem Futurity than his counterpart. He quickened up nicely under the near-side rail to burst clear of Epictetus, who has recently won at Listed level, and the reopposing Holloway Boy, while Luxembourg just ground out success in workmanlike fashion.

I have no qualms with the fact that Auguste Rodin tops the market - he deserves to for the reasons already mentioned - but this year’s edition of the 2,000 Guineas has good strength in depth and 6/4 looks on the skinny side. If you backed every 6/4 shot that should be 5/2, you would lose money long term. 

As a result, I’m going to oppose him with leading homefield challenger Chaldean. Andrew Balding, who won this race with Kameko in 2020, allowed this horse to dance every dance during his juvenile campaign and he rewarded him with victories in the Acomb, Champagne and Dewhurst. The latter win came at this track - experience that will stand him in good stead for a return to the venue.

Granted, his seasonal reappearance could have gone a lot better. Chaldean was sent off favourite for the Greenham but he only took one stride before Frankie Dettori fell out of the sidedoor. Nevertheless, he completed the course - albeit without a jockey on his back - and that will have got rid of some of the rust.

His breeding and past performances strongly suggest that he will stay a mile, while he has already run to a figure close to what is required to win this event. Chaldean also boasts tactical speed and should be up in the vanguard from an early stage, which will give him the jump on several rivals. With all that in mind, Dettori, who is in his last season riding, can hopefully plunder another huge prize.

Don’t overlook former Irish-trained sprinter 

My biggest bet on Saturday’s domestic action will come on the undercard as I strongly fancy Probe to go close at a double-figure price in the 6f Howden Handicap (2.50 Newmarket) for trainer Jennie Candlish.

This son of Kingman began life with Dermot Weld in Ireland and he looked highly promising in his three-year-old campaign with maiden and conditions race victories. The latter success saw him achieve a RPR in the low 100s and he appeared ready to tackle Group and Listed events.

However, he ended up missing the summer (reason unknown) and was subsequently gelded. Connections then tried an array of different trips, ground and headgear to little avail, and he was sent to the sales. Candlish picked him up for 62,000gns and he made an instant impact by winning on stable debut at Wolverhampton two months ago.

Probe looked like he would improve plenty for the run yet still managed to run down all-weather specialist Shalaa Askar, who won on his next start off 2lb higher. Candlish then opted to switch to turf and he almost justified the decision at the Craven meeting by finishing a creditable second after travelling powerfully throughout. 

The bigger field in this 23-runner handicap will help him no end - he can be keen in his races and he wears a hood as a result - and he surely remains well treated off a mark of 90. This contest seems tailor-made for Probe and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t hit the frame at the very least.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Probe (2.50 Newmarket) @ 12.5
Chaldean (4.40 Newmarket) @ 7.5