Race In Focus: Tom Collins previews the Vertem Futurity and provides his Saturday NAP

The Vertem Futurity Trophy has long been considered the best two-year-old trial for the following season’s Qipco 2,000 Guineas, so you can expect market movement after Saturday’s renewal.

Saxon Warrior (2017), Magna Grecia (2018) and Kameko (2019) all plundered this mile contest before taking Newmarket’s Classic after a long winter break. And, although Mac Swiney (2020) and Luxembourg (2021) didn’t follow suit, they went on to land the Irish 2,000 Guineas and Irish Champions Stakes respectively during their three-year-old campaign.

On that evidence, it seems safe to assume that whoever wins this year’s renewal of the Vertem Futurity (3.35 Doncaster) will go on to strike at the top-level next season. However, we aren’t treated to the greatest group this time around, largely due to the testing ground conditions and the fact that Charlie Appleby has shunned this prize with his top-drawer crop, so let’s not get hopes up just yet.

Only four of the eight runners set to go to post boast an official rating of 100 or higher, which wouldn’t suggest this is a glittering contest. Of course, three horses (King Of Steel, Salt Lake City and Captain Wierzba) don’t meet the criteria because they don’t possess a mark, but they almost certainly haven’t run to a three-figure level just yet anyway.

King Of Steel might be capable of competing given the ease in which he dismantled a well-bred bunch of rivals on debut at Nottingham, but punting him at around 14-1 on the back of that effort would be best described as a leap of faith.

Similarly, Stormbuster will attract some support given he won the Haynes, Hanson and Clark conditions event on his last start, a race that always seems to produce talented horses. However, I tend to associate that contest with future mile-and-a-half types and I wouldn’t be surprised if he found this trip a touch on the sharp side now that he enters Group 1 company.

Holloway Boy and Epictetus faced off in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes earlier this month and ran third and second respectively. The latter shaped better given he raced away from the favoured stands’ side rail and couldn’t find cover, but I fancied him quite strongly that day and I was disappointed that he couldn’t put away Appleby’s Silver Knott, who isn’t at the top of his powerful trainer’s pecking order.

That, then, leaves market leader Auguste Rodin. Doesn’t he just win this race? This son of Deep Impact is the first foal of the brilliant Rhododendron, who ended her two-year-old season with a victory in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile for trainer Aidan O’Brien. Perhaps Auguste Rodin will complete a similar mission.

He has shown a good level of form in three starts, and has notably taken a big step forward each time. Auguste Rodin justified skinny odds to win the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown last month and seemed to relish the give underfoot. That race was plundered by Mogul en route to the Vertem Futurity back in 2019 and, although he couldn’t get the job done at Doncaster, it’s interesting that connections have plotted a similar path.

With stablemate Salt Lake City presumably in the field to set the pace along with the aforementioned Stormbuster, Auguste Rodin can rack up a third consecutive victory under Ryan Moore and provide O’Brien with his fourth winner of this race in the last six years. 

Ground has come good for Zoffany

Sometimes digging deeper into big-field handicaps can reward punters, and I’m hopeful that I’ve found a diamond in the rough in Doncaster’s opening 7f sprint (1.20). 

Three-year-olds from the Roger Varian, William Haggas and Saeed bin Suroor yards will undoubtedly attract cash, but I much prefer the claims of the Richard Fahey-trained Master Zoffany, who has opened at a double-figure price.

His form figures (92-057) might not scream ‘winner-in-waiting!’, but there are several reasons as to why this four-year-old can see an upturn in fortunes on Saturday. 

Firstly, Master Zoffany will relish the chewed-up soft ground more than most - two of his three career victories have come with give underfoot, and he ran one of his better races last term on his sole attempt on heavy. 

Fahey has given him a light campaign because there haven’t been many suitable races on soft ground this season. He had a mid-summer break between July and October to freshen him up for an autumn target, so this could well be his D-Day. 

He will also be helped by the return to seven furlongs. Although he seemed to want a mile early in his career, Master Zoffany has quickly proved that he isn’t seen at his best over that trip and even seven-and-a-half furlongs has been a step too far on occasion. He’s only run once over this distance since July 2021, and that came after a 280-day break in the ultra competitive Bunbury Cup, where he had a very slim chance of winning. 

The talented Oisin Orr has been booked, which is a big positive, and I love his draw in stall four. Runners tend to congregate over towards the stands’ side rail in sprint handicaps at Doncaster, and those drawn high can often end up short of room at crucial points. Consequently, a low draw offers the greatest probability of a clear run.

Finally, a 15-month winning drought has seen Master Zoffany’s mark fall to just 1lb below when he was last successful. It’s worth noting that he’s only had five runs in that time, and on three occasions he has achieved a RPR of 85 or higher. With all those factors in mind, I would be really disappointed if he didn’t feature in the finish.

Recommended bets

Master Zoffany (1.20 Doncaster) @ 14
Auguste Rodin (3.35 Doncaster) @ 2.2