Tom Collins believes an unexposed three-year-old will beat his elders at Ascot
By Tom Collins
Latest Horse Racing Odds1 September 2022
Classified contests provide vital opportunities for poorly-handicapped horses, or those who are steadily declining with age, to race off a level-playing field against similar rivals.
Nine-year-olds You’re Fired and Oh This Is Us are prime examples as to why this type of race needs to remain in the calendar. The pair, who began their careers all the way back in 2015 and have become stalwarts of the flat scene, have amassed over £800,000 in total prize-money and accumulated 23 victories in the process.
They are clearly still enjoying their racing, but regression goes hand-in-hand with age and both have struggled to trouble the judge so far this term. Now rated 90 and 87 respectively, Ascot’s Chapel Down Classified Stakes (3.45) is the perfect spot to try and turn back the years to record one final success. It would be fantastic if either achieved the unthinkable, but they are certainly not betting propositions.
Godolphin’s Colour Image, the mount of Tom Marquand, and all-weather specialist United Front look to have stiff tasks, so this £20,000 contest may be fought out by two Andrew Balding inmates.
Carolus Magnus is the form play after three consecutive third-placed finishes in competitive handicaps, but he now drops back to a mile, which I struggle to see as a positive given he has been making late inroads over two furlongs further. Ascot clearly suits and David Probert knows him well, but he strikes me as a horse who needs everything to go his way to succeed.
I much prefer Al Marmar, who is the sole three-year-old in the line-up and consequently receives 5lb from his rivals. Such an allowance seems a gift in this contest and it’s no surprise to see that runners from the Classic generation have plundered five of the last seven renewals. Unfortunately that spoils the main aim of these events, but the attractive prize pot is understandably too good to miss for some.
Al Marmar showed good promise on his first two starts at Lingfield in the winter and was considered talented enough to be sent to Doha for the Group 2 Al Rayyan Mile, where he finished a creditable fourth of 16. He needed his first run back on these shores after a short break and was subsequently gelded, which seems to have worked the oracle.
Successful at big odds on his comeback over this course and distance, Al Marmar went on to finish second behind a subsequent winner at Newmarket and finished fifth at York on his most recent outing. He caught the eye with a strong, late burst from off the pace that day, and given the Knavesmire suits prominent racers, you can easily mark up his performance. A similar effort should easily suffice in this field, and the booking of Ryan Moore is a huge positive.
Varian juvenile will be centre of attention
Roger Varian has sent out 17 horses who have finished either second or third in the last fortnight. Despite also saddling nine winners in that timeframe, the Newmarket trainer is currently enduring a pretty frustrating run, not least because those close defeats included six odds-on shots and seven horses who were beaten less than half-a-length.
Nevertheless, Varian is opting for a full-steam-ahead approach as he closes in on the 100-winner mark for the season and has seven runners across the cards on Friday. Only one of those will head on the 380-mile round trip up to Haydock, and she is undoubtedly the most intriguing out of the lot.
The filly in question is the once-raced Centrefold, a two-year-old daughter of Showcasing who will represent her powerful connections in a 6f fillies novice (2.28) that has surprisingly attracted a near-maximum field of 14 runners.
Purchased for 240,000gns last October, Centrefold had clearly shown plenty of talent on the Newmarket gallops prior to her debut three weeks ago as she opened up as the 5-4 favourite before sliding out to 2-1 just before the off. Perhaps the late drift told the story as she seemed to curl up in the final furlong of that Newbury contest, but the way she travelled into contention was hard to miss.
Varian isn’t one to quickly get runs into a talented sort, so she must be thriving at home, and I’m confident that she will be far more professional this time around. She might not be a huge price, but I’d be disappointed if Centrefold didn’t get off the mark at the second attempt.