Thursday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins takes aim at Sandown’s competitive finale
By Tom Collins
8.42 Sandown Odds23 May 2023
We have seen numerous talented performers return the track in recent weeks, and Desert Crown will add his name to the list when he makes his reappearance at Sandown on Thursday.
The 2022 Derby and Dante winner unfortunately had his three-year-old campaign cut short due to injury, but he has been kept in training in the hope that he will excel at the top level in open company this year and the Group 3 Racehorse Lotto Brigadier Gerard Stakes (7.42 Sandown) has been earmarked as the perfect comeback spot.
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute outshines his counterparts when it comes to longevity and consistency with middle-distance equine stars, and I have no doubt that Desert Crown will make a big splash in this division in 2023. I’m a big believer in this colt and he should take care of Hukum et al on Thursday, albeit at a short price.
However, I will just be using the year’s edition of the Brigadier Gerard as a watching brief and hope that Desert Crown confirms my suspicions that he is right out of the top drawer. I don’t mind reasonably short-priced bets every now and then, but 4/6 off the layoff doesn’t represent too much value despite the fact that he is by far the most likely winner.
Instead, I’ll keep the cash in my pocket and wait for the Get Your Racehorse Lotto Tickets Now Handicap (8.42 Sandown) that ends the card. A near-maximum field of 16 runners will head to post for this mile three-year-old contest and it looks an exceptionally enticing punting opportunity.
My first of two bets will be placed on current market leader Greek Order, who I’m convinced is unbelievably well-handicapped off a mark of 80. This son of Kingman is a full-brother to 2019 Jersey Stakes winner Sangarius, who was seen at his best over a mile and a quarter, so it’s pretty surprising that all three of Greek Order’s outings have come over seven furlongs.
Greek Order attracted significant market support (11/4 into 6/4 favourite) on debut at Salisbury last October and made a big move into the race after a slow break, but eventually had to settle for third. It was a highly promising start in a contest that has produced five subsequent scorers, not including the winner who finished fourth in a Listed race on her only start since.
Harry and Roger Charlton’s charge then went to Newmarket and was heavily punted once more - more cash spurned, but not without promise. Greek Order broke much better and raced prominently, before making another nice move once asked for effort. However, he wandered in the dip when he hit the front (inexperience) and was run down in the closing strides by the ill-fated Regal Honour, who was awarded a rating of 96.
Perhaps there were fewer excuses for his comeback defeat at 4/6 last month, but I thought he ran a highly respectable race on unsuitably slow ground. Again, he made a big sweeping run from mid-division before flattening out late and being passed by debutant Quddwah (won again since and is now rated 96) and the experienced Balance Play.
The step up to a mile will definitely suit him and Sandown’s long homestraight will allow rider Ryan Moore to exploit his high cruising speed and impressive change of gear. Given he’s only just been fended off by two horses rated in the mid-90s off level weights in his short career, it’s hard to believe that his official rating of just 80 will stop him. Anything bigger than 7/4 seems fair - 11/4 right now is good value.
I’m also going to have a smaller wager in the race on Ashmore, who has far more to prove and hasn’t been drawn overly well in stall 10. That being said, I’ve been encouraged by his performances in two all-weather contests this season and the switch to turf and fast ground could see him in a far better light - he’s a son of US sire More Than Ready, whose progeny love quick conditions.
Ashmore was only just run down by Andrew Balding’s Totnes, who should have won again since but for trouble-in-running, last time at Lingfield and David Menuisier has a 30% strike-rate (9/30, +£23.15 to £1 level-stakes) with three-year-olds at this venue in his career. Expect him to outrun his odds under Neil Callan.