Thursday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins has value plays at Newmarket and Ripon
By Tom Collins
Latest Horse Racing Odds19 April 2023
Naval Power’s withdrawal from the Craven has unfortunately removed most of the value from the race. There’s still a nice group of three-year-olds set to go to post for Thursday’s featured event at Newmarket, but it might be more of a watching brief than a punting heat now.
Perhaps Charlie Appleby’s remaining entry, Mysterious Night, will provide his connections with a fourth win in this Group 3 event in the last five years. Rated 110, this son of Dark Angel won just one of his four starts in Britain before achieving success on the international stage with victories at Deauville and Woodbine. He’s clearly very smart, but he has something to prove back on home soil.
Impressive Kempton debut winner Mostabshir might have the highest ceiling in the race, though he’s yet to show us he can do it on turf and doesn’t have much experience to lean on. I’m more interested in Karl Burke’s Indestructible, who has had wind surgery over the winter. Amo Racing’s horses have been firing on all cylinders over the last couple of weeks and his form with Chaldean last year stacks up well.
Nevertheless, I prefer a couple of other horses across the cards. The first comes in the opening six-furlong handicap at Newmarket (1.50) in the form of Kerdos, who has always been highly regarded by trainer Clive Cox.
This three-year-old lost his maiden tag on good to soft ground (similar to what he’ll face on Thursday) in September, and backed it up in fine style at Windsor a month later. He was given a nice break over the winter and returned in a small-field all-weather contest last month, for which he was sent off 6/5 favourite.
Kerdos made a nice move to hit the front in the homestraight but he was worn down close to home by George Boughey’s Conquistador, who has a lofty target this summer. That performance will have shaken off the rust and the return to turf will see him in much better light.
The other horse of interest is Fortamour, who returns to Ripon in a bid to retain his crown in the 0-80 6f handicap (3.20) halfway through the card.
Ben Haslam’s seven-year-old saves his best efforts for the ‘Garden racecourse’ and he fairly dotted up on soft ground in this contest last year. He ran off a mark of 80 that day and followed up a month later off 5lb higher, so it’s extremely interesting that the handicapper has allowed him to return here off 80 once again.
Fortamour’s recent fifth at Newcastle was a sign of revival and, given he’s drawn exceptionally well in gate 11 (right against the favoured stands’ side rail), I can’t oppose him.