Thursday Horse Racing Tip: Tom Collins has a confident pick at Chelmsford

Small-field contests with just one real front-runner should be pretty easy to decipher, but that might not be the case for Thursday’s penultimate race at Chelmsford.

Despite offering an attractive £25,000 prize pot, the Betsi Handicap (8.00) has attracted just six runners that are headed by the Archie Watson-trained Excel Power. Rated 102 and a winner of five of his 11 all-weather starts, this four-year-old drops down to seven furlongs and appears to be the sole pacesetter in this field.

Given he has drawn perfectly in stall two and proved his well-being by winning at this track just seven days ago, it wouldn’t have been surprising if Excel Power topped the market. However, despite boasting a cracking 40% win strike-rate in his career (8-20), Excel Power has proved a little inconsistent of late and the quick turnaround, coupled with his new career-high mark, installs some doubt in my mind.

He faces Fiduciary, who is an interesting runner for Jane Chapple-Hyam and China Horse Club. This five-year-old mare began her career in France with Henri-Francois Devin before shipping out to Canada, where she won just one of her four starts for Josie Carroll. That move didn’t work out as planned and now she’s competing in Britain - and based on her recent third-placed finish, she definitely has a chance in this race.

However, she has primarily raced on Tapeta surfaces in recent times and the switch to Polytrack raises a question mark. She also has to prove that she’s capable of replicating her best efforts over this longer trip.

Outsiders Tiger Crusade, Spirit Of Light and Papa Stour are hard to recommend, which leaves me with the most likely winner of all in Revolutionise.

Although this phrase is bandied around a lot, trainer Stuart Williams is one of the shrewdest men in racing. That was on show just 26 days ago when he landed a nice gamble at Wolverhampton with Revolutionise. He opened at 12-1 for that 7f handicap, but his price crashed down to 10-3 two minutes before the off and he justified that support with a hugely impressive victory.

That performance was hard to predict given his recent exploits, but Revolutionise had the backform in the book to strike at that much lower level once he was back on-song. The way he moved through the race was extremely eyecatching and, although he now steps up in grade, this might have always been the plan as Williams bids to land a nice pot.

Revolutionise will carry just 8st 8lb (rated 82, 20lb inferior to topweight Excel Power) in this handicap and should be able to sit third or fourth and stalk the early speed, before pouncing late in the day. Although he was hit with a 7lb rise for his last-time-out victory, he has previously won off 90 and still appears very well treated.

Thursday All-Weather Tip

Revolutionise (8.00 Chelmsford) @ 3.1