Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips: Stateside expert Tom Collins zones in on Gulfstream

Let’s start this column with a shameless plug: make sure you watch the ‘Stateside’ show on Sky Sports Racing this Saturday because the US racing is going to be electric. 

The weakest card at Laurel may get my blood pumping more than it should (Hawthorne would be a step too far!), but this is just different gravy. I see your Meydan, Randwick, Flemington, Kelso and Newbury and raise you Gulfstream Park, which hosts the most competitive and exciting racing this weekend. 

If it is quantity you are after, the Hallandale Beach venue provides it with 14 races spanning almost seven hours. Those looking for quality can also stop the search. There are a total of nine (yes, nine!) stakes races, eight of which boast graded status, on a card that offers a whopping $2,279,000 in prize-money. What more could you want? Winners, I guess. Let’s get straight to it. 

The first of two confident plays is Up To The Mark, who runs in the $87,000 allowance optional claimer (4.58) early on the Gulfstream undercard.

This 1m½f contest may look tricky on paper due to the big field and number of leading barns represented, but I believe Todd Pletcher's unexposed three-year-old stands out like a sore thumb. Simply put, he has drawn the optimum gate, hails from a red-hot barn (23% this meet), has the leading rider on board, and boasts unlimited potential against a group of largely exposed rivals who are stuck at this level.

Up To The Mark’s form figures may not indicate a sky-high ceiling, but his first five starts all came on dirt and it wasn’t until he raced on turf for the first time on January 28 that we saw his true ability. This son of Not This Time raced in mid-division early behind admittedly strong sectionals and produced a mouthwatering burst around the final bend to saunter clear of some talented foes.

I’m not saying that he wasn’t suited by the way that race panned out, but it was still a stakes-level display from a horse who was finally given the opportunity to use his chief asset - a turn of foot. With another fast pace likely here, you should expect a similar result. Fingers crossed he doesn’t encounter traffic as they turn for home as I’m convinced that’s the only way he loses.

Those of you who like to place a double should make sure your second selection is Forte, who runs in the showpiece Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes (10.43 Gulfstream), a key Kentucky Derby trial that was first run way back in 1945.

Again trained by Todd Pletcher, Forte asserted himself as one of the best two-year-olds in the country in 2022 with victory in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, before plundering both the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. 

I’ve always been a big believer of this horse - I tipped him for the Hopeful at decent odds - but he surprised me with just how easily he put away Cave Rock on his last start in November. Bob Baffert’s rival came into the Juvenile with the buzz of being the ‘next big thing’ but he just couldn’t match Forte. I didn’t know he was that good.

Now this son of Violence is on the Derby trail and he enters the Fountain Of Youth on the back of a series of highly impressive works. It’s impossible to watch him train without being blown away with the ease in which he powers away from his respective stablemates without coming out of second gear.

Although there are some promising horses against him, this is a very winnable spot for a horse of Forte’s quality, and Pletcher, who has won this race three times since 2007, will have him spot on off the layoff. The Morning Line has him pencilled in at 7/5, but I will be shocked if he doesn’t go off odds-on.

Time to end this tipping piece with a juicy price. White Frost and Speak Of The Devil are the mares to beat in the Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes (9.05 Gulfstream), but they’re likely to take plenty of money and I’d rather take a shot on Miss Yearwood at much bigger odds.

This filly went straight into my tracker after her third career start when she finished a creditable second in a maiden special weight contest at Keeneland last April. It takes a talented performer to rally from such an unpromising position and get so close to winning.

She hasn’t proved as prolific as I would have liked in her subsequent outings (won two of her five races), but she posted a career-best display in the Jockey Club Oaks in September and remains open to huge improvement on turf. 

I’m concerned that this event could develop into a sprint as there’s not much early speed signed on, and if that happens Miss Yearwood probably won’t figure until too late. However, she has the talent to compete against this group and I’m confident that she’s on the up.

Saturday’s US Tips 

Up To The Mark (4.58 Gulfstream Park) @ 2/1 or bigger
Miss Yearwood (9.05 Gulfstream Park) @ 9/1 or bigger
Forte (10.43 Gulfstream Park) @ 4/5 or bigger