Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins has a banker double among four picks

Domestic racing in the UK and Ireland on Saturday is pretty weak, so I’m going to stick to the phenomenal fare over the other side of the pond. 

There’s Grade 1 action at Keeneland (Madison Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes), Aqueduct (Carter Handicap) and Santa Anita (SA Derby), so make sure you tune into Sky Sports Racing to enjoy the action from 6pm. I will have a pick for every race on screen - obviously they are not all going to win, but hopefully we can end the night with a level-stakes profit. If you are after my strongest plays, keep reading!

My first major bet will be Run Classic, who will break from gate seven in the $300,000 Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes (7.50 Keeneland). This five-year-old has had a rather truncated career and has only made the track on nine occasions, but he’s got bundles of talent and produced his best performance over this course and distance in October.

This son of Runhappy broke sharply that day, raced right up with the speed and waved his rivals goodbye with a wicked turn of foot. Connections have tried him over a mile or further in his four subsequent outings, but they are now reverting back to seven furlongs and that should see him return to his best.

There isn’t much early speed signed on in the Commonwealth this year and Run Classic can take advantage by making every yard of the running. I’m surprised he’s not favourite.

It’s over to Aqueduct for the second selection of the night - and first leg of the ‘banker double’. The horse in question is Christophe Clement’s New Ginya, who should go off around the even-money mark in the $72,000 allowance event (8.44) midway through the card. 

This filly broke her maiden at the first time of asking in November 2021, but has proved extremely frustrating since by finishing second on her last four outings. However, she has had a couple of tough trips in there, not least when she rallied from well off the speed at this venue back in November.

I like her coming off the layoff, her draw might actually be a good thing given she can miss the start, and a recent five-furlong breeze should have her spot on for her return. I’ll be shocked if stablemate Waterville beats her, while Collaboration and Lady Jasmine have to improve on speed figures.

Let’s make the journey back to Keeneland for the final two plays. The $350,000 Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes (9.35) features last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint champion Caravel, who is 12 out of 20 lifetime and represents leading connections. Perhaps he returns with another victory, but I hate his price and have to oppose him from a value point of view.

The consistent Arrest Me Red is interesting for Wes Ward, but his wide gate and Joel Rosario’s poor 2023 strike-rate puts me off. With that in mind, I’m going to take an each-way shot at an outsider in Oceanic.

This six-year-old doesn’t have the best strike-rate, nor has he won at this level before, but he caught my eye when he finished second to the brilliant Golden Pal in the Woodford Stakes last year. And the fact that he beat Artemus Citylimits, who is going to be a much shorter price today, suggests he can be competitive in this event.

Oceanic was a complete no-show behind Caravel in the Turf Sprint, but he broke from stall 16 and was five-wide throughout, so I wouldn’t read too much into that display. Maybe he can cause a surprise at around 12/1.

Finally, I’ll try to complete the ‘banker double’ with Squire Creek in the $110,000 allowance optional claimer (10.50) late on the Keeneland card. This three-year-old son of Uncle Mo cost $525,000 at auction and worked nicely in the build-up to his debut at Fair Grounds, so it came as no surprise that he got off the mark at the first time of asking.

That was no sub-standard maiden special weight contest, though, as runner-up Wicked Again is highly regarded by connections, while the fourth-home (Gun Collector) has subsequently boosted the form by winning next time up. 

Brad Cox and Florent Geroux are extremely dangerous around Keeneland, especially with young and unexposed horses who possess early speed, and Squire Creek seems to have an outstanding chance of making every yard to retain his unbeaten record.

Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips

Run Classic (7.50 Keeneland) @ 5/2
New Ginya (8.44 Aqueduct) @ 6/4
Oceanic (9.35 Keeneland) @ 12/1 each-way
Squire Creek (10.50 Keeneland) @ 10/11