Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips: Cox trainee can plunder final Kentucky Derby trial

Saturday represents the final opportunity for three-year-olds to earn all-important Kentucky Derby points, so it isn’t surprising to see a good field line up for Keeneland’s Stonestreet Lexington Stakes.

The Grade 3 event (10.16 Keeneland) has attracted 11 runners from across the country, which includes Bob Baffert’s expensive purchase Arabian Lion, who I don’t like at all in this spot, and Steve Asmussen’s Disarm, who finished second in the Louisiana Derby when last seen and would earn a place in the ‘Run for the Roses’ next month with victory here.

Disarm is undoubtedly the horse to beat. This son of Gun Runner looked sharp in victory at Saratoga last summer before suffering an injury, and he’s returned to the track with a couple of fair efforts. Asmussen has won this race before, albeit way back in 2004, and he’s drawn the ideal post to stalk the leaders.

Despite looking like the solid play, I don’t think his ceiling is as high as others in this line-up and it usually pays to back an unknown quantity with serious potential rather than the formsetter in races of this nature. Furthermore, a couple of firms have incorrectly priced him as favourite and he represents pretty poor value.

Brad Cox has won two of the last three runnings of the Lexington and he’s doubly represented here. Demolition Duke has attracted Flavien Prat and should appreciate this distance, but he doesn’t have an electric turn of foot and could be caught napping at a crucial stage. 

I prefer his other runner, First Mission. This Godolphin homebred colt has run twice at Fair Grounds - a track that doesn’t receive any betting/television coverage in the UK due to licensing. However, I’ve watched both of his replays and he’s quite clearly very smart. 

He almost overturned a high-quality stablemate on debut before sauntering to success against a weaker group in mid-March. The horses he beat that day haven’t done much for the form - a couple of them were stuffed on Friday - but he could have done little more than sprint clear under tender handling. First Mission should be favourite given likely improvement and the 4/1 on offer is tasty.

The only other horse I want to back on Saturday night is Clever Thought, who has shipped from Gulfstream to Kentucky to run in the $110,000 allowance (8.08 Keeneland) for three-year-olds. 

Todd Pletcher’s son of Quality Road looked all at sea on debut down in Florida a couple of months ago. He broke slowly, was squeezed out early and rounded the final bend in near-enough last position. However, he flew home on the all-weather track to take third in a race that is working out exceptionally well (fourth, fifth and seventh all won next time out).

Clever Thought was then switched to turf, which had a positive effect on his performance. After suffering trouble at the start once again, which meant he had to settle in rear, he made a dash up the inside before engaging overdrive to win snugly.

The longer homestraight at Keeneland is almost certain to suit and his future may lie in stakes races rather than at this level. He’s 3/1 on the Morning Line in the US, but anything bigger than 7/4 (no odds at the time of writing) would represent fair value.

Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips

Clever Thought (8.08 Keeneland) @ 7/4 or better
First Mission (10.16 Keeneland) @ 4/1