Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips: Special three-year-old can dominate Florida Derby

Gulfstream’s magnificent winter meet will be brought to a close this weekend and the Hallandale Beach venue will go out with a bang as their Saturday card concludes with the Florida Derby.

The $1million feature (11.40 Gulfstream Park), which holds Grade 1 status, has proved to be an excellent trial for the Kentucky Derby since the turn of the century. Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017) all plundered this event before wearing the roses at Churchill Downs five weeks later, and Maximum Security (2019) would have bolstered that list had he not been disqualified in the first leg of the Triple Crown.

All hopes lie with Todd Pletcher’s Forte this time around. Victory here and this son of Violence will surely go off a short-priced favourite in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May - he deserves to anyway on the strength of his two-year-old form, let alone the fact that he romped home in the Fountain Of Youth here last time out.

He’s going to be prohibitive odds despite being drawn in gate 11 for the Florida Derby - let’s not pretend he represents serious value here. However, Forte is almost impossible to oppose for win purposes and I’m hopeful that he can romp to success once again under Irad Ortiz. This really isn’t a stellar group of three-year-olds, but he could still be the superstar that the sport needs in this division.

Four others catch my eye on the undercard - I promised at least two selections earlier this week on Twitter, but I’ve decided to go all-out on this card! 

I’ve kept a close eye on Fort Washington in recent months and I strongly fancied him at a double-figure price for the Canadian Turf 28 days ago. He actually ran fantastically well to finish third after the forecasted fast pace failed to materialise - he’s a deep closer who performs best when there’s speed to chase.

That display was further evidence that this son of War Front is on a sharp upward trajectory, and the set-up in Saturday’s $150,000 Appleton Stakes (10.57 Gulfstream) should be far more suitable. I don’t mind his draw at all, and a late burst of speed might be enough to reel in the prominent racers.

Another horse in my tracker is Aunt Shirley, who will return to the track after a winter break in the $100,000 Sanibel Island Stakes (9.38 Gulfstream) for three-year-old fillies. This race is ultra competitive and you can make a case for several, so she wouldn’t be my strongest selection of the night.

However, Todd Pletcher’s new recruit has an incredible pedigree (by Justify out of a Frankel mare) and she should improve a great deal for the switch to turf. I loved her debut performance at Ellis Park, where she scooted up the inside rail to put her big white face in front, and you can just put a line through her Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes defeat as she was in too deep on a surface she clearly didn’t appreciate. Pletcher is excellent off layoffs and her works interest me.

Three selections so far, and they are all ridden by one of the Ortiz brothers. Let’s make that four. Marketsegmentation is undoubtedly the filly to beat in the $100,000 Sand Springs Stakes (9.04 Gulfstream) after a highly creditable performance to take third in the Endeavour Stakes at Tampa. 

She was sent off favourite for that Grade 3 contest after a supremely impressive win at Gulfstream in December, and she ran better than the finishing position suggests as she got involved in an early battle with eventual runner-up Scottish Star, which enabled deep closer Suprisingly to pick them both off late. 

Irad Ortiz gets back aboard here and a more patient approach should enable her to use her wicked turn of foot late to put this race to bed. She’s more talented than her older and more experienced rivals in this extended mile turf contest.

Finally, I’m going back to the well with Miss Yearwood in the $150,000 Grade 3 Miss Orchid Stakes (7.56 Gulfstream) early on the card. She’s posted at 10/1 on the Morning Line, but I’d be happier to take single-figure odds about this four-year-old filly.

She caught my eye in a couple of her maidens last year and didn’t run badly behind McKulick in the Jockey Club Oaks on her final start. She comes into this season with unfinished business and you can just put a line through her reappearance, where she was unsuited by a mile. 

This step back up in trip will see her in much better light and, although I’m pretty worried they will crawl in the early stages and therefore leave her in a terrible position, I can’t ditch her just yet. If she doesn’t win here, she will enter the winner’s enclosure at Keeneland next month.

Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips

Miss Yearwood (7.56 Gulfstream Park) @ 8/1 or better
Marketsegmentation (9.04 Gulfstream Park) @ 7/4 or better
Aunt Shirley (9.38 Gulfstream Park) @ 4/1 or better
Fort Washington (10.57 Gulfstream Park) @ 3/1 or better
Forte (11.40 Gulfstream Park) @ 1/2

Prices with ‘or better’ listed are used as a value guide as none were available at the time of writing. Opening show will be taken for P/L purposes.