Saturday’s UK Horse Racing Tips: Well-handicapped four-year-old can plunder Lincoln

I have waited a long time to say this: The Flat season is here! Someone should tell the weather, though, as we are unfortunately expecting pretty deep ground at Doncaster.

Saturday’s featured event on Town Moor is the Lincoln handicap (3.35 Doncaster). Although it doesn’t necessarily satisfy the needs of the racing public who want to see the cream of the crop strut their stuff, this mile contest provides an extremely interesting betting heat as a number of lightly raced four-year-olds pit their wits against established and experienced elders.

Trends tell you that younger horses often get the better of their more streetwise foes here - five of the last six Lincoln winners have been four-year-olds - but Johan’s heroics 12 months ago (yes, I’m still living in the glory of his 50/1 success) proved that the older brigade can sometimes trump the up-and-comers.

Despite desperately searching for this year’s Johan, I felt like I would be reaching if I put up any horse outside the top five or six in the market. Despite being able to make a reasonable case for a couple - Boardman and Toshizou in particular - they wouldn’t be solid enough for a bet. Consequently, I’ve opted to play simple and back the most logical winner in Al Mubhir.

Everything seems to be in order for a huge run from William Haggas’ progressive son of Frankel. Not only has he drawn well in stall ten - I don’t think there’s a huge draw bias but low-to-middle could be slightly favoured - but he is also running off a pretty lenient mark of 97, relishes testing ground and hails from an in-form stable that has tasted glory in this contest.

A two-and-three-quarter-length strike on heavy at Haydock last October signified a turning point in this young horse’s career and I’m extremely hopeful that he can justify a relatively short price on what appears to be his seasonal target. First up after wind surgery, which could elicit improvement, provides further reason for support.

Two other horses catch my eye on the undercard. First up is Richard Hannon’s Tacarib Bay, who will be ideally suited by the mud in the Listed Doncaster Mile (4.10). This four-year-old also held an entry in the Lincoln, so the ambitious move to race him in this higher grade is worth noting.

Tacarib Bay has won twice in his 13-race career, both of which came on boggy ground at Haydock. He also finished fifth in a competitive handicap at Goodwood and third in the Balmoral at Ascot last year when the going was on the soft side. With that in mind, the more rain the better his chance.

Hannon clearly believes he’s capable of striking in black type contests as he’s been tried in some prestigious races, not least last year’s 2,000 Guineas (outclassed) and the Group 3 Superior Mile (finished a respectable second of four runners). And I like that he had a spin around Wolverhampton to shake off the rust for an event that his trainer has won twice in the last five years.

The other runner of interest is Broken Spear, a Doncaster specialist who shouldn’t be overlooked at a double-figure price in the Spring Mile (2.25) for trainer Tony Coyle and talented apprentice Billy Loughnane.

Throughout his career, Broken Spear has proved that he’s been at his best early in the season when the ground is yet to turn quick and, although he’s getting on at the age of seven, he ran as well as ever last season so there are no signs of regression just yet.

He got into the Lincoln 12 months ago off a mark of 86 and ran exceptionally well to finish fifth of 22 despite being caught on the wing without cover. After failing to win on nine subsequent starts (he performed admirably in two outings here in the autumn), the handicapper has dropped him down the weights and he should be considered a huge player off 82, especially given Loughnane takes off a further 5lb.

Much like Tacarib Bay, Broken Spear has had an all-weather spin to prepare him for this event (six furlongs at Newcastle was on the short side!) and the visor goes back on. He could be the best value bet on the card if his price holds.

One more selection for you! William Buick could have picked up nice mounts at Doncaster or Chelmsford (Godolphin have a nice prospect in the featured conditions event there), but instead he has opted for Kempton to partner Secret State in the Listed Magnolia Stakes (2.05).

This horse reportedly showed little at home prior to his racecourse debut, yet he quickly improved into a nice type last year. He finished second in the Wood Ditton on debut, and followed that with victories at Chester’s May meeting, Nottingham, Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. Charlie Appleby wanted to aim him at the St Leger, but pulled the plug after his runner-up finish in the Great Voltigeur.

Although his winning run came to an end that day, it turns out that he was beaten by a high-quality rival in Deauville Legend, who was actually sent off favourite - and finished fourth - in the Melbourne Cup on his next outing. 

Put a line through Secret State’s last effort as he didn’t stay the trip and ran a touch flat, and he’s got to be the horse to beat on his return to the racecourse after a winter break. I like his wide draw, too, as Buick has the power to adopt whatever tactics he likes from out there.

Saturday’s UK Horse Racing Tips

Secret State (2.05 Kempton) @ 2.8
Broken Spear (2.25 Doncaster) @ 11.5
Al Mubhir (3.35 Doncaster) @ 5.2
Tacarib Bay (4.10 Doncaster) @ 6