Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins bids to build his Royal Ascot bank with two selections

Royal Ascot is just around the corner - three or four days away depending on when you are reading this! - so let's build the bank with a couple of selective bets.

With flat racing’s showpiece meeting looming on the horizon, it is understandable that the quality of Saturday’s fare is well below what we have come to expect over the last two months. Nevertheless, each race has to have a winner and I believe there are two nice chances to increase our current balance.

The first horse of interest is the Richard Fahey-trained Great State, who will line up in the Listed Molson Coors Scurry Stakes (2.50 Sandown), a race that was won by the brilliant Battaash back in 2017.

Great State’s chance is obvious - this isn’t a case of finding a horse that others will miss. Not only is he top-rated (mark of 108), but he comes into Sandown’s featured contest on the back of three consecutive victories that includes a pulverisation of his opponents in the Westow Stakes at York last time.  

That performance not only proved that he has the ability to strike at this level, but it also answered a crucial question regarding this horse’s capabilities of handling quick conditions given his five previous career starts came on the all-weather (four) or soft ground (one).

Furthermore, this five-furlong course at Sandown suits stout stayers at this distance, which is definitely a tick in the box for Great State. And, although I don’t love his draw in stall two given he will need to find a clear passage to produce his customary late surge, the small-ish field and lack of real depth should result in gaps opening up within the final two furlongs.

Only Perdika, who is a model of consistency but has been on the go for a long time, and Roger Varian’s unexposed Tajalla hold realistic claims of beating Great State, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was sent off around 5/4 rather than the current 15/8.

Plenty of eyes will be on the soon-to-be retired Frankie Dettori at Ascot next week, and I’m hopeful that he can settle a few nerves by partnering A Dublin Lad to victory in the Darley British EBF Maiden Stakes (4.00 Sandown) later on the card.

This race contains a number of promising types. James Fanshawe’s Cracksking was sent off favourite on debut at Kempton and ran encouragingly; Kathab finished second in the Wood Ditton for William Haggas, and Middle Earth has a nice middle-distance pedigree. However, I believe the selection has the most potential by a considerable margin.

A Dublin Lad, who was bred by Cheveley Park Stud and sold for £300,000 at the 2021 Tattersalls Book 1 sale, ran once last year in a Newmarket novice event that was won by Godolphin’s Imperial Emperor, who looked pretty good but hasn’t been seen since. The other four runners have current ratings of 81, 77, 66 and 66, so it probably wasn’t the best juvenile contest ever staged at the track.

However, A Dublin Lad was all at sea throughout the early portion of that race and only really buckled down with two furlongs to run. He found a gap against the rail, moved through powerfully into second before just fading close to home on good to soft ground. He actually traded at a low of 6/4 in the run despite never looking like getting on terms.

Those of you who like sectional analysis will be interested to know that they dawdled in the first few furlongs - A Dublin Lad was positioned last so inconvenienced the most - yet he posted the quickest fifth and seventh furlong in the field. It was a tall order for him to overcome his poor track position that was caused by greeness.

A Dublin Lad is a son of Ulysses out of a mare called Sacre Caroline, whose progeny includes three-time Group winner Sacred, so he has a nice mix of stamina and speed. I’m sure that he’s going to improve for the quicker underfoot conditions, and hopefully he’s improved mentally over the winter.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Great State (2.50 Sandown) @ 2.82
A Dublin Lad (4.00 Sandown) @ 5.7