Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins is splitting his stakes in the Victoria Cup

Predicting which side of the track will be favoured is crucial in pinpointing the winner of big-field handicaps. How many times have you seen your horse beat the rest of their group but still fail to make the frame? If you’re anything like me, the answer is probably ‘too many’.

Looking back at recent renewals is usually the best way to gather information on draw biases and that should be the angle for most punters ahead of Saturday’s Lavazza & Ascot 10 Year Anniversary Victoria Cup (2.40) at Ascot. 

The last ten editions of the race provide a pretty clear picture. A whopping 50% of the top-four finishers since 2013 have been drawn in stall 20 or higher, while 85% of the top-four finishers have jumped from stall 11 or higher. That means that only six horses in the last decade have hit the frame from a single-figure stall, which is a pretty small number.

Rebel Territory, who won last year’s Victoria Cup, is part of that group after breaking from stall two, but I’m putting that down to sheer dominance. It’s also worth noting that he finished off the race in the middle of the track rather than sticking over the far-side with the remainder of his counterparts. Putting him to one side, probability tells you that a high draw (and therefore racing against the nearside rail) is a clear advantage.

This year’s field will only feature 23 runners rather than a maximum field of 29, so those drawn in the teens should be part of the equation. Favourite Mostabshir has a nice post position in 19 and he could easily be the classiest type for the Gosdens, but he’s proved hard to catch right and I’m not sure that I would want a relatively short price on him.

I do, however, want to take 10/1 on the David O’Meara-trained Pearle d’Or, who has never finished outside the top three in three starts over this course and distance. This strong-travelling five-year-old powered through his race to justify top weight here last July and was arguably unlucky not to add to that success when third on good ground in October.

He looked the most likely winner at the two-pole that day, but he was drawn on the wrong side of the track and had nothing to race with as the line approached. For a horse who wants a good tow into the race, that was far from ideal.

O’Meara gave him a spin on the Rowley Mile as a prep - I don’t really care that he finished down the field that day given the speed bias and rustiness that worked against him - and he should be able to track across to the ideal part of the track here from stall 14. Silvestre de Sousa wouldn’t be the ideal rider for him, in my opinion, but hopefully he allows him to travel before picking up the pacesetters late.

I’m also going to have a few quid each-way on The Wizard Of Eye, who is drawn right in the middle in stall 12. He has more questions to answer than Pearle d’Or, notably fitness and track concerns, but he’s a classy individual who may improve for the stable switch from Stan Moore to Charlie Fellowes. With Tom Marquand booked on the class drop, I find it hard to ignore him.

It will be straight over to Nottingham after the Victoria Cup so that I can watch Nariko in the 0-85 fillies’ handicap (2.55) over six furlongs. This event will see three-year-olds tackle their elders while receiving a 10lb allowance and I want to try to take advantage of that.

Nariko is one of two three-year-olds in the field and she could be leniently treated, even without the weight-for-age. Hugo Palmer’s filly ran to a fair level for former connections at two before really catching the eye in a solid Kempton handicap on her reappearance this term. The first three home that day, as well as the fifth, have all performed admirably in competitive handicaps at good tracks since, while the sixth has won both of his subsequent starts.

You can put a line through her recent spin at Wolverhampton as she stumbled at the start, which caused her to lose the advantage of stall one. The first three in that race were in those respective positions all the way around and only Nariko made up places late in the day. 

 She should handle turf, though that is yet to be proven, and hopefully she can go close under Rowan Scott with a cleaner start.

It will be a long wait until the UK NAP of the day, which is Cambria Legend in the 1m2f Pertemps Newton Handicap (5.00) at Haydock. Purchased for 100,000gns as a yearling, this son of Camelot looked pretty raw and backwards last season and consequently he wasn’t able to challenge on either outing.

I thought he ran with some promise on his return before getting tired, so it was no surprise to see him go close on handicap debut at Yarmouth 18 days ago. Cambria Legend travelled very nicely through that race but crucially had to wait for a gap to appear inside the final two furlongs, which allowed the eventual winner to get the jump on him. 

Up just 1lb for that performance and with the benefit of more experience, I expect him to get off the mark at the fifth attempt for trainer James Fanshawe. It isn’t much of a race and his main rivals could be the Charlie Johnston-trained Amasar and Rogue Raider, both of whom need to prove they stay the trip.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Pearle d’Or (2.40 Ascot) @ 8/1
The Wizard Of Eye (2.40 Ascot) @ 10/1
Nariko (2.55 Nottingham) @ 6/1
Cambria Legend (5.00 Haydock) @ 15/8