Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Can Tom Collins follow up last week’s Newcastle double?

I should start by congratulating trainer Brian Ellison for fulfilling his dreams by winning the Northumberland Plate last week. It was a special and much-deserved achievement that warrants column inches - and also a tasty one for us with Onesmoothoperator going in at a nice price.

This weekend’s action lacks the same competitiveness and excitement with Saturday’s featured Group 1 Eclipse at Sandown set to be dominated by City Of Troy. Currently priced up as the 2/7 favourite with SBK, the son of Justify will hopefully continue to strengthen my belief that he’s one of the most talented flat horses we have seen in the last decade with another facile victory, but he’s obviously not a betting proposition with risk far outweighs reward.

I will be more interested to hear what Aidan O’Brien says after the Eclipse regarding future plans. City Of Troy is currently 6/1 favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and a prep race on the dirt would go a long way towards proving whether that is a good or bad price. Hopefully the lads at Ballydoyle opt for the Travers next month as his next target.

Onto more pressing matters in Saturday’s bets. Lets begin with another one of the headline events this weekend, the Old Newton Cup at Haydock (3.15), as I quite fancy the David O’Meara-trained Iron Lion at a double-figure price providing the forecast rain falls before racing. Eight millimeters is set to hit the Merseyside track, which should ease the ground to good to soft and provide a huge confidence boost.

This grey son of Roaring Lion has a notable knee action and performs best when the sting is out of the ground. His victories this year have been posted on good to soft at Doncaster, where he hacked up without coming off the bridle, and over this course and distance when it was officially described as good but rode a little more testing.

Some punters may argue that he is inconsistent due to his up-and-down form figures but I believe that he has had obvious excuses for his recent defeats. In my opinion, he clearly hated the undulations on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket back in mid-May, while the rattling fast underfoot conditions at Ayr meant he didn’t let himself down.

Back with conditions in his favour and a good pace to chase, which will allow him to saunter into contention, I’m expecting Iron Lion to go pretty close at a tasty 11/1. There will be far worse each-way bets than him across the card.

I’m also interested in the following 6f nursery (3.50 Haydock), which allows a group of two-year-olds to run off their initial handicap marks for the first time. Betting in nurseries this early in the season can prove difficult with juveniles progressing at unpredictable rates, but I’m keen to follow Hofburg and this could be the time to strike.

Richard Hannon’s colt shaped with promise on debut at Lingfield in May, a race that has worked out nicely with the winner going on to finish sixth in the Coventry at Royal Ascot while the second and fifth won on their next outings. 

Hofburg then went to Haydock and travelled well before flattening out over seven furlongs, suggesting that intermediate trip was outside of his comfort zone. Hannon must have felt the same as he dropped him back a furlong at Chepstow last time, where he ran a winning race but was slightly inefficiently ridden. 

Alec Voikhansky, who maintains the ride, decided to tackle market leader Feeraas from the outset and the pair blazed through the opening three furlongs, softening each other up in the process. Hofburg managed to fend off that rival before succumbing to the well-ridden Ran Amok, who had the perfect trip. 

Hofburg achieved an RPR of 76 that day and, with further progression likely, his opening mark of 75 looks workable. Back to a more conventional track with a slightly less aggressive ride, he should go close.

Finally, it’s up to Beverley for what I would consider to be the good thing of the day in El Burhan, who will carry topweight in the opening 7½f novice event (1.40) for trainer George Boughey. Jim Crowley has made the trip up north for three mounts, though this one is the clear reason for his long journey.

El Burhan shaped well behind two subsequent winners on his debut at Newmarket, where he raced furthest away from the favoured stands’ side rail. He returned just eight days later and showcased a fair level of improvement with a grinding victory over Attack and Big Cyrill, who came back to win impressively on his next attempt.

An extra half a furlong and the uphill finish at Beverley should be right up El Burhan’s alley and, although he has to lump a penalty for that recent success, there’s a good chance that he’s much classier than the opposition he faces.

There was no price at the time of writing, so I’m hoping to see around even-money for him. The presence of Pap’s Turf and Rockwood in the field should keep his odds respectable, anyway.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

El Burhan (1.40 Beverley) @ 6/4
Iron Lion (3.15 Haydock) @ 11/1
Hofburg (3.50 Haydock) @ 11/2