Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins hopes star apprentice can lift home handicapper

Saturday UK racing has proved highly profitable for this column in May with five winners from seven selections - hopefully the good fortune will continue this weekend.

The showpiece events on this side of the Irish Sea come at Haydock with the Group 2 Temple Stakes, which sees the return of three-year-old sprinters The Platinum Queen and Dramatised, and Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes taking centre stage.

The star on show in the latter event is Little Big Bear, a 124-rated juvenile who recorded four consecutive victories at two and struck at Royal Ascot (Windsor Castle) and in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. His Curragh victory was nothing short of spectacular - he absolutely routed a field that included the reopposing Bradsell - and he hit the line in the style of a real superstar prospect going into his three-year-old campaign.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien aimed him at the 2,000 Guineas on his comeback and everything went wrong. The ground came up soft at Newmarket earlier this month, which wouldn’t have been ideal, and he was struck into in the early part of the race which caused an injury (vet found that he was lame post-race). 

He had clear excuses for finishing last of 14 on his first try at a mile, and it seems as if connections are reverting back to what he does best by dropping him in trip. With Frankie Dettori set to take the ride, Little Big Bear is undoubtedly the horse to beat and I was very close to putting him up in this column. However, he shortened from a best-priced 2/1 to 13/8 on Friday morning and missing out on that value will force me to watch rather than invest.

Instead, I’ll venture to the supporting tracks in an attempt to find another winning Saturday double and the first horse on my radar is Andrew Balding’s three-year-old Alsakib, who will make his second career start in the 7½f novice (2.20) that kickstarts Chester’s card.

This half-brother to three Group winners, which includes the gutsy and game Nyaleti, attracted strong market support on his debut at Kempton 40 days ago and was sent off favourite to make a winning start in what appeared to be an above average contest for the grade.

He broke nicely from stall three and instantly found himself in a prominent position just behind the leaders on the rail. However, they dawdled in the middle furlong of that contest and that allowed experienced front-runner Onight to skip a few lengths clear at a crucial stage, which opened up a gap that Alsakib just couldn’t close quickly enough.

Nevertheless, this son of Kingman eroded the deficit all the way to the line and was only beaten half-a-length while drawing two-and-a-half-lengths clear of the remainder. The most impressive part was that he made his move in the quickest furlong of the race (11.26s clocked by the eventual winner) yet still made inroads, and the form has been boosted by the fourth entering the winner’s enclosure since.

On that evidence, the extra half a furlong on Saturday will suit Alsakib and his gatespeed should allow rider Harry Davies to get across to the rail from stall four - a huge advantage around Chester. The only rival who could beat him on paper is William Haggas’ Orchid Bloom, but she comes off a long layoff, has to give him 2lb and will jump from a wide gate.

It will be a long five hours if Alsakib gets the job done as the second selection runs at Salisbury’s evening fixture. The horse in question is Climate Precedent, who will be partnered by brilliant apprentice jockey Billy Loughnane in the 1m2f classified stakes (7.40). 

This homebred son of Ulysees ran with promise in competitive novice events last season, most notably when he finished fifth behind the 101-rated King Of Steel at Nottingham on his second start, but he never troubled the judge.

Michael Bell gelded him over the winter and he was sent off favourite on his comeback over 1m3f at Southwell, where he moved sweetly through the race only to capitulate inside the final furlong. Climate Precedent was also market leader on his next outing, but he got outbattled in a tight finish by a John and Thady Gosden-trained filly. He had no excuses that day but he ran very nicely nonetheless.

However, it was his most recent performance at Lingfield that entices me. He only finished fourth of eight but that race involved some smart sorts and developed into a sprint, which wouldn’t have suited him over a mile. He failed to quicken as well as others turning in, but eventually found his stride and was never nearer at the line.

The switch back to turf, up in trip and onto a more galloping track should see him in better light, and I’m sure that a mark of 67 isn’t holding him back. This looks an easier contest and hopefully Loughnane can guide him into the winner’s enclosure for the first time at the seventh attempt. It’s also worth noting that Michael Bell has a 23% strike-rate with his three-year-olds at this venue in the last five years.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Alsakib (2.20 Chester) @ 3.6
Climate Precedent (7.40 Salisbury) @ 5.8