Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Keeneland spin will have Lockinge favourite in prime condition

From the warm sun and oval track in Kentucky to the tepid climate and straight course at Newbury - that’s the journey made by Charlie Appleby’s globe-trotting four-year-old chestnut Modern Games.

The lovable son of Dubawi, who has already raced in four different countries in his career, is the current market leader for this Saturday’s featured race, the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes (3.35 Newbury). And rightly so, given he’s already a four-time winner at the highest level.

Three of those victories came in North America and the other was on French soil, but he proved that he was capable of performing to a similar level on these shores last term when he finished a close second to the brilliant Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. He’s gutsy, experienced, talented and classy - what is not to like?

Well, I can near-enough guarantee that you will hear negatives or worries from other media outlets surrounding his defeat at short odds (1/2) last time at Keeneland. However, Modern Games ran deceptively well and the fact he was beaten certainly shouldn’t put you off backing him in the Lockinge.

The turf rode extremely firm at Keeneland during their spring meet - it didn’t rain for about 20 days straight - and there was a clear bias towards front-runners and prominent racers. William Buick, who flew out to the US to ride Modern Games in the Maker’s Mile, hadn’t ridden at the track that meet prior to partnering this four-year-old and that didn’t help his cause.

Buick sat far off the early speed - he was seven lengths behind at halfway, six-and-three-quarter lengths behind at the three-quarter pole, and six lengths in arrears turning for home - and gave Modern Games an almost insurmountable task to reel in eventual victor Chez Pierre, who was on the speed from the outset.

As I mentioned on the SBK Betting Podcast this week (check it out if you haven’t already, link is above!), the fact that Modern Games was so far back wasn’t due to the horse not being able to run faster. When he won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in November last year, he was just four lengths behind after a half-mile split of 46.81 seconds. This time they went through the same stage at 47.66s and he was three lengths further back, so it was definitely his rider’s decision.

Modern Games quickly eroded the deficit in the homestraight and was only beaten three lengths at the wire, closing powerfully while fending off third-placed Up To The Mark in the process. That runner, who is trained by Todd Pletcher, came back to win the Grade 1 Turf Classic with ease at Churchill Downs on his next start and gave the form a valuable boost.

Newbury is completely different to Keeneland, but Modern Games is a super consistent performer with the highest rating in the field and the ability to score at the top level in Great Britain. I think 3/1 is a very fair price, especially given Laurel needs to improve to win, My Prospero comes off the layoff on quickish ground and Mutasaabeq has never shown his best form away from Newmarket.

The only other horse I’m supporting in the UK on Saturday is Montassib, who I’ve already had a few quid on at 4/1 (now around 11/4 best priced) in the Aspall Blush Cyder Handicap (3.50 Newmarket). I couldn’t believe he opened up as the second choice in the market behind The Gatekeeper as he seems to have everything in his favour. 

This five-year-old made a bright start to his career by winning his first three starts, especially given he had a 598-day enforced layoff in the middle. Montassib is winless since, but he has performed admirably in a bunch of highly competitive handicaps - he finished fifth of 29 in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, fourth of 18 in the Bunbury Cup, fourth of 10 in the Shergar Mile when he received a bad ride, and second of 12 in a competitive contest at Haydock - last year and appears well-enough handicapped off a mark of 98.

Put a line through his comeback run in the Lincoln as he’s a son of Exceed And Excel, whose progeny don’t want heavy ground one bit, and I was really encouraged by his recent fourth at Haydock as he was the only horse to make any kind of inroads from the back of the pack. 

Seven furlongs is his ideal trip and good ground should also bring about further improvement. This is the easiest race he is run in for a long time and I’ll be disappointed if he didn’t get the job done.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Modern Games (3.35 Newbury) @ 4.2
Montassib (3.50 Newmarket) @ 3.7