Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Course specialists can repeat their wins at Ascot

With Chester’s May meeting earlier this week and York’s Dante meeting coming up in a few days, flat racing enthusiasts are treated to a brilliant couple of weeks of top-class action.

Splitting those festivals is the Victoria Cup (2.40), a seven-furlong handicap that often provides plenty of clues heading into Royal Ascot. A total of 23 runners will compete in this year’s renewal - slightly down on the average over the last few seasons - and soft ground is the likely going description.

History tells you that you need a high draw to win this race - the last nine winners have jumped from stalls 13, 25, 23, 29, 18, 13, 10, 24 and 27. Clearly the stands’ side rail has proved a golden highway in recent times and, although the majority of the runners came down the centre of the track during Friday’s card, I’m pretty confident that this larger field will negotiate its way across once again.

With that in mind, I don’t want anything to do with horses drawn in single-figure stalls, which include 2021 winner River Nymph and likely favourite Baradar. Both have winning claims on form - more so the latter than the former given he’s coming off a long break - but they will have to be miles the best to overcome the predicted draw bias.

Irish Lincoln seventh Totally Charming and course regular Fresh have to be considered, but I prefer the claims of last year’s winner Vafortino, who will make just his eighth start for trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy on Saturday.

Vafortino showed ability early in his career for trainer Joseph O’Brien, predominantly in races run on slow ground, and he caused a minor shock when he won this race 12 months ago with a strong-staying effort.

He boasts tactical speed, which is crucial to ascertain a good early position in heritage handicaps like this, and clearly loves this track and conditions combination. He’s 6lb higher than last year, but Benoit De La Sayette’s claim halves that rise and his most recent effort at Newmarket suggests he’s still pretty well treated. I’m quite surprised that he isn’t vying for favouritism and I definitely want to bet him at double-figure odds.

Another race winner returning to defend their crown interests me later on the Ascot card in the form of Mister Bluebird, who will be partnered by the excellent Billy Loughnane in the closing six-furlong handicap (4.55).

Heather Main’s gelding fended off 18 runners in this event last year and will face a much reduced and easier task this time around. My case for him is very similar to the one I have made for Vafortino in the Victoria Cup: he acts at this track and on testing ground, he’s improved in the last 12 months and looks a generous price at the time of writing.

Granted, he’s drawn in stall two and that could see him race on the worst part of the track. But Loughnane shouldn’t have much trouble grabbing some cover and switching across given he faces just nine rivals. A spin around Musselburgh last month will have blown away the cobwebs and this has probably been his early-season target for quite some time.

Finally, I’m looking at Haydock for a banker. Creative Force should be more like 1/2 than 11/10 in the six-furlong conditions event (2.45) despite the fact that he was beaten by the reopposing Commanche Falls at Newmarket on his reappearance.

Charlie Appleby’s Group 1 winner will strip much fitter for that run and also didn’t get the best lead into the race - the horses he mixed it with early fell out the back of the TV while the first two home raced towards the far side.

This drop in grade is interesting for Creative Force as we know that he’s capable of running to a mark of 120 (it generally takes a low 110s performance to win an affair like this). If he is anywhere near his best, I’m pretty convinced that he will win on Saturday.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Vafortino (2.40 Ascot) @ 11
Creative Force (2.45 Haydock) @ 2.24
Mister Bluebird (4.55 Ascot) @ 7.8