Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Can Tom Collins add to last week’s two winners?

The Ebor may not have gone to plan when it came to last Saturday’s tips, but a couple of Newmarket winners (Quinault and Subsequent) have put us on the front foot going into this weekend.

Sandown plays host to the best of the action, although it is fair to say that we are lacking both quality and quantity this Saturday with the St Leger festival, Irish Champions Weekend, Newbury’s Mill Reef fixture and the Cambridgeshire meeting all looming on the horizon over the next month.

Tamfana is the highest-rated horse to set foot on the track in England on Saturday and she should prove very difficult to beat in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes (2.25 Sandown), an £85,000 race for the fillies and mares.

David Menuisier has not hidden his admiration for this filly and has pitched her in the deep end all season long. She finished a good third on her three-year-old reappearance in a Deauville Group 3, before going down as an unlucky loser when fourth in the Group 1 Qipco 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket when rider Jamie Spencer couldn’t find a clear passage to glory.

Her subsequent efforts have come over longer trips - she finished third in the French Oaks over 1m2½ and fourth against the boys in the Grand Prix de Paris over 1m4f. I thought she shaped well on both occasions, especially in the Oaks, but I’m very excited to see her back at the mile given how well she executed her effort on the Rowley Mile back in May.

Menuisier has now lowered her sights a touch and found what appears to be a very winnable race. Over the last decade, the average winner of the Atalanta has run to a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 111 and boasted an official rating (OR) of 105 going into the race. Tamfana has already surpassed a 111 RPR twice in her career and boasts an OR of 112, so we know she’s more than good enough to strike based on trends.

Her opposition isn’t overly weak, but it’s not strong either. Bright Thunder and Rolica head the three-year-old contingent, but both have something to prove after lacklustre last-time-out showings. While Doom and Doha have been running consistently well this year but have plenty to find at the weights, probably aren’t improving as much as Tamfana, and have to give the filly 6lb weight-for-age allowance. 

A handful of lazy punters will say ‘11/10 is too short’ on this filly, but I believe her chance of winning is far greater than 47% and therefore she has to be a play.

The Group 3 Solario Stakes (3.35 Sandown) is a little tougher to decipher, but trends tell you to focus on the market leaders once again with seven of the last 10 favourites proving successful and no horse priced bigger than 4/1 winning the race in that period.

Field Of Gold is a worthy jolly after his impressive novice success for the Gosdens, but I’m certain that he wants at least a mile and he could come unstuck against a speedier rival. Matauri Bay could be that horse, but I’m a little concerned about the rattling fast ground for him given his pedigree and knee action.

I ended up siding with Royal Playwright as a result. This colt is bred to be brilliant being by Lope De Vega out of Group 1-winner Arabian Queen and he couldn’t have done much more on his Salisbury debut to indicate that the future is bright.

Royal Playwright broke well, sat close to the pace, moved up nicely when asked to win his race, and stayed on strongly to win in facile fashion. Trainer Andrew Balding wouldn’t be one to put a two-year-old in a Group race second-time-up if he didn’t think they were capable of winning and hopefully he can maintain his unbeaten record under Oisin Murphy. 

Finally, I’m going to bet a similarly well-bred type in the opening 7f novice (2.10) at Chester as King Of Cities makes his second start after finishing a very promising fourth on debut at Newmarket earlier this month. This colt is by Dubawi out of Group 1-winner Ajman Princess, which makes him a half-brother to top-level performer Inisherin. 

King Of Cities travelled beautifully on his first start and looked to be making a major move as the camera angle changed between the three and two-furlong poles. He loomed large but failed to sustain his run as they hit the hill on the July Course and will have benefited from that experience. 

I like that Richard Hannon has opted for a quick turnaround with him - that suggests he has come out of the race in fine form - and this track should suit given he has shown a high cruising speed, tactical speed, and turn of foot, three attributes you need to be successful on the Roodee. 

There are some nice types against him, including Leonardo Dax and Marchogion, but I’m hoping that Sean Levey can get the colt into a good tracking position from stall five and let him strut his stuff in the latter stages of the contest.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

King Of Cities (2.10 Chester) @ 2/1
Tamfana (2.25 Sandown) @ 11/10
Royal Playwright (3.35 Sandown) @ 9/4