Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins hopes Lincoln fifth will make amends at Leicester

Sandown’s Jump Finale meeting will undoubtedly garner top billing on Saturday, but I will be sticking to the flat action - and it’s Leicester in particular that interests me.

Before we get into the tips, here’s a word of warning if you’re punting at the venue. You should expect wide-margin winning distances and a number of underperforming horses as the ground is currently described as heavy. During their fixture on April 14 when the going was similar, there were winners on the card by 50, 12, 11 and 17 lengths. Finding horses who will handle conditions is paramount.

The first race of note is the Madri Exceptional King Richard III Cup Handicap (3.05 Leicester), for four-year-olds and upwards run over a mile. Eight runners will go to post but there are only three or four with realistic claims of winning on form.

Recent Newmarket victor Bopedro is clearly in good heart and has to be considered, but he’s 0/8 off marks of 100 or higher and his recent 6lb rise pushes him over that limit. He’s run well on heavy ground before, so that’s not an issue, but he might find one or two too good under his welter burden.

Another horse carrying plenty of weight is Notre Belle Bete, who won the Easter Classic on All-Weather Finals Day last time at Newcastle. He’s definitely the class angle in this field, but he’s winless in 13 attempts on turf and he’s only ever run on ground described as soft once (he underperformed). This is a completely different ballgame to what he’s used to.

Maysong, a winner on soft ground at Redcar two weeks ago, could be described as the solid option. He gets a jockey upgrade to Kieran O’Neill, but he’s now off a joint career-high mark and takes a notable step up in class - I just don’t think he’s talented enough.

That leaves Al Mubhir, who I really fancied in the Lincoln earlier this month. He ran well to finish fifth that day and, given he’s a big and strong gelding, perhaps he needed that run to get rid of rust following a 169-day break. 

Deep ground is clearly suitable (he won on heavy at the back-end of last year) and further improvement is likely on his second start after wind surgery. William Haggas boasts a 29% strike-rate (12/42) at Leicester in the last five years, while rider William Buick has struck at 27% in the same timeframe. 

Perhaps the most interesting runner on the card is Hour By Hour, who will carry topweight in the Staropramen Zero Alcohol Handicap (4.15 Leicester). This soft ground winner performed admirably on his most recent outing when second at Pontefract, and remains unexposed after just seven career starts.

My main angle for supporting him, outside of the fact that I believe he’s well handicapped and will handle conditions better than most, is that Iain Jardine very rarely sends runners down to Leicester from his Carrutherstown base (two in his career). It’s a 9-hour round trip and Hour By Hour is his only runner. That’s a pointer in its own right.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Al Mubhir (3.05 Leicester) @ 7/4
Hour By Hour (4.15 Leicester) @ 5/2