Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins shares his US banker double and Brighton play
By Tom Collins
Latest Horse Racing Odds21 April 2023
Although there are some nice horses returning to the track at Newbury on Saturday afternoon, I thought the card looked extremely tricky and will instead stick to the evening fare.
Brighton’s seven-race card typically features a number of previous course-and-distance winners, and one such runner caught my eye in the 1m2f handicap (7.15). The horse in question is Aldbourne, who represents the in-form Harry Eustace team.
This four-year-old gelding began his career with Andrew Balding and showed signs of promise over intermediate trips while looking far from the finished article. He moved to Eustace’s Newmarket stable this time last year and showed notable improvement once he was stepped up to ten furlongs on rain-softened ground in the autumn.
That progression saw him notch back-to-back victories, the second of which came at this venue off a mark of 62. Interestingly Hayley Turner, who partnered him that day, gets back aboard after amateur Kaiya Fraser partnered him on his return to the track at Doncaster three weeks ago.
Aldbourne was sent off 11/4 favourite in that competitive handicap at the start of the month, and he actually shaped a lot better than the form figure and losing margin suggests. It was pretty clear that he just got tired late that day - like many of the runners at this year’s Lincoln meeting - and he’s sure to come on for the spin.
Eustace is striking at 50% in the last fortnight and Aldbourne will not only appreciate the class relief here, but he seemed to handle the downhill nature of the undulating Brighton track better than most. The handicapper dropped him 1lb for his reappearance effort and, although he’s still a way above his last winning mark, his RPRs suggest this rating is workable.
All eyes will be on Keeneland once again on Saturday evening. This meet has already featured a number of top-class performers, not least Wesley Ward’s magnificent Royal Ascot-bound juvenile American Rascal on Thursday night, so it’s sad to say that there’s only a week left before the curtain falls.
However, that provides ample time to back a few winners and I’ll try to land another banker double this weekend. The first horse to add to the betslip is Socially Selective, a daughter of Speightster who will probably go off a pretty short-priced favourite in the $110,000 allowance contest (9.12) for the Bill Mott team.
This filly broke her maiden at the first time of asking at Saratoga last August with a seven-and-a-quarter-length success, and runner-up Padma has provided some strength for the form by placing in a stakes race since.
Socially Selective wasn’t seen again until March, and the fact that Mott immediately placed her in Listed company off the layoff was noteworthy in its own right. She ran fantastically well in that heat and finished a clearcut second behind Brad Cox’s Key Of Life, who came back to win the Grade 2 Beaumont Stakes at this track last week.
Her most recent work was fast and will have prepared her for this race, the dropdown in class should provide the perfect opportunity to return to winning ways, and I love an outside draw for a speed horse. Irad Ortiz’s presence in the saddle is another positive.
You should get a better price on the second leg of the double, which is Ken McPeek’s Rattle N Roll, who will break from gate five in the $300,000 Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes (10.16 Keeneland).
This race may not feature an out-and-out speed merchant, but there is plenty of early thanks to the likes of Trademark, Call Me Fast and Skippylongstocking. They should set sneaky fast fractions throughout the first part of the race and that will help Rattle N Roll, a deep closer who has a habit of missing the break.
This colt was an excellent two-year-old, which he proved by winning the Grade 1 Claiborne Futurity at this track, and although he hasn’t quite delivered at the same level in open company, he’s a four-time stakes winner who should never be written off.
I thought he ran very well on his comeback at Fair Grounds last month and the step up in distance should allow him to use his abundant stamina to wear down opponents. His speed figures are right up there with the best in here and, although this track generally favours prominent racers, his affinity for Keeneland and eminent class will level the playing field.
Aldbourne (7.15 Brighton) @ 9/2
Socially Selective (9.12 Keeneland) @ 4/6 or better
Rattle N Roll (10.16 Keeneland) @ 9/4 or better
Prices with ‘or better’ listed are used as a value guide as none were available at the time of writing. Opening show will be taken for P/L purposes.