Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins looks to strike in competitive Newcastle handicaps

If big-field staying handicaps on the all-weather are your cup of tea then you are in luck this weekend as the domestic focus switches to Newcastle for their Northumberland Plate fixture.

Inaugurated way back in 1833, the 2m½f contest is one of the richest handicaps throughout the course of the season and provides a fantastic opportunity for horses and trainers slightly below the top echelon to strike on a big day.  

Since the race was moved to the synthetic surface in 2016, there have been three winning favourites and four horses priced shorter than 11/2 who have got the job done. More interestingly, six of the eight winners in that timeframe have been drawn in a double-figure stall, which further showcases the importance of having the ability to move across and find your position rather than letting your hand be played for you from an inside gate.

I want to focus on those drawn high once again and, although I was tempted by Duke Of Oxford and Evaluation, I just couldn’t look away from Onesmoothoperator, who will be my sole bet in the race (3.10 Newcastle).

We all know that Brian Ellison loves to target this affair - it’s his local track - but he has tried numerous times to win it without success. He came very close with the well-punted Seamour, who finished second in 2016, and he might have his best chance since that painful day with Onesmoothoperator.

This six-year-old doesn’t have the most inspiring career strike-rate of three wins from 33 starts, but he was sent off at just 10/1 for this event in 2022 when ridden too cold and has subsequently shaped well over the distance in limited attempts.

I’m pretty sure the Northumberland Plate has been the target for some time and he caught the eye over this stamina-sapping distance at Southwell on his most recent affair. Go back to New Year’s Day and he wasn’t beaten far on this track behind the reopposing Zealandia when tenderly handled. It feels like he’s been a nearly horse until now, but he should have a few pounds in hand of the handicapper if he produces his A-game. 

The Northumberland Vase (2.35 Newcastle), the consolation race for the Plate, looks a fair bit easier to find the winner. Tony Martin has sent over two horses, albeit not in his name, supposedly with the big one in mind, but they didn’t quite make the cut and will be forced to race for the smaller prize pot instead.

Alphonse Le Grande looks like the first string with Hollie Doyle interestingly taking the mount. This gelding took an age to properly strut his stuff on the track, but he hacked up at Dundalk in March when heavily punted and backed that up in fine fashion in the Chester Vase last month.

William Buick, who rode him that day, didn’t even have to move him up into fifth gear with just gentle hands-and-heels riding guiding him to the line for a decisive two-and-a-quarter-length strike. That came off a mark of 73, so he’s 8lb higher this time around and now switches surfaces, but there could be an infinite amount of improvement left in this five-year-old and we know that he stays well.

 The rest of the runners, Belgoprince aside, look fairly exposed with Zimmerman (never won on the all-weather), Faylaq (on a 32-race losing sequence), and Chillhi (not won since his two-year-old campaign) supposedly heading the list. If Alphonse Le Grande turns up in the same form as when he won at Chester, he will be super tough to beat.

Finally, I’m heading over to Newmarket for my final play of the day, which is Candle Of Dubai in the 1m4f fillies’ handicap (4.35). This imposing, big-striding filly caught my eye on debut and I subsequently tipped her in my column on May 25th when she went on to finish a close-up second.

 I’m not the most loyal of punters/tipsters, but I wanted to keep her onside as she still looked raw, inexperienced and open to loads of progression once stepped up in trip. Unfortunately, I didn’t see that she was entered on her sole subsequent start, which she went on to win by a decisive margin!

Candle Of Dubai has been given an opening mark of 81 and she now steps up in trip, which is sure to suit. The July Course at Newmarket should also play to her strengths with the uphill finish making this more of a stamina test. This is a relatively decent race for the level, but I think she has the most upside.

 Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Alphonse Le Grande (2.35 Newcastle) @ 5/2
Onesmoothoperator (3.10 Newcastle) @ 9/1
Candle Of Dubai (4.35 Newmarket) @ 3/1