Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins looks for his eighth profitable column from his last nine

We have entered the last three weeks of the 2024 flat season and jumps racing is now firmly on the horizon. In fact, it’s only a matter of days before Chepstow’s opener, which will be followed swiftly by the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham. I can hear the sound of plenty of people rejoicing.

The last two months have been pretty lucrative for this column after a mid-season slump, so I can’t say that I’m willing the flat season to finish like many others apparently are! Hopefully we can add another couple of winners to the tally before Champions Day at Ascot and consequently launch into the winter with a healthier betting balance.

There are plenty of good contests this weekend, many of which are extremely competitive and hard to decipher. We will start with the Cambridgeshire (3.40 Newmarket), a 35-runner mile handicap littered with well-treated types and soft ground merchants. Countrywide downpours earlier this week will see the ground be described on the testing side and that should suit the vast majority of entries in Newmarket’s featured event.

I can certainly see the case for the three market leaders. This Songisforyou represents the ultra shrewd Emmet Mullins and was impressive last time out; Godwinson should relish the conditions and is on an upward curve, while Roi De France is thoroughly unexposed and receives a 5lb weight allowance from his elders. However, I just don’t want to take a short price about anything in this race - it’s too competitive for that.

Two horses have caught my eye at bigger prices, starting with the Dylan Cunha-trained Silver Sword. This grey gelding hasn’t had the most prolific of seasons, but he was punished by the handicapper on a regular basis last year thanks to three victories and a Group 3 runner-up finish on soft ground at this track in October.

It feels as though Cunha has spent most of this campaign trying to get him back down the weights for a crack at a big handicap prize on soft ground and, fortunately for his connections, he looks set to get his ideal conditions this weekend off just 2lb higher than his last winning mark.

Silver Sword has drawn stall 29, which I consider to be a huge positive given the action usually comes towards the stands’ side rail in this race, and Rhys Clutterbuck gets on well with him. He is a major contender for the win.

I will also chuck a couple of quid at Majestic, who has also drawn well in stall 36 for trainer Jack Channon. This is his Gold Cup, if you will, as proven by his victory in the race in 2022 and fourth-placed finish in 2023. The latter result came off a mark of 89 and he’s back down to that exact rating for this year’s renewal.

His latest run at Chepstow was evidently used to shake off the rust and I like the booking of Benoit de la Sayette, who seems to have all of his big days in the saddle in competitive handicaps. He’s too big in the market to ignore.

There are two Group 1s on Newmarket’s card, but only the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (2.25) interests me from a betting perspective. It’s a cracking race with two Group 1-winning fillies lining up against each in Babouche and Lake Victoria. 

They boast similar credentials - they represent Ireland’s leading handlers and own identical ratings of 112 - but I would slightly favour Babouche out of the pair as she has beaten the boys on her last two outings and seems a proper sprinter, while Lake Victoria may be seen to better effect over further.

Nevertheless, I’m going to look elsewhere and back a French challenger in Daylight. This daughter of Earthlight doesn’t have to improve much to figure on ratings and she really impressed me when successful in the Group 3 Prix du Cabourg at Deauville in July.

She was sent to the Group 1 Prix Morny for her latest effort and ran a hugely eye-catching race behind Whistlejacket. A case could be made that she would have gone very close had she not run into traffic problems as that race developed, too.

Daylight will love conditions and I’m surprised she’s such a big price considering she doesn’t have all that much to find, especially when you draw a line through Whistlejacket, who beat her in the Morny and wasn’t far behind Babouche last time out. She’s an each-way bet to nothing providing all eight runners stand their ground.

Finally, I’ll head to Ripon for my banker of the day, which is Dothan in the opening six-furlong novice event (1.35). This race hasn’t attracted the best group and, although the selection is likely to be a short price, he should get your day off to a winning start. 

Ed Bethell, who possesses a 24% strike-rate with runners at Ripon (11/46) in his training career, debuted this horse on heavy ground at Chester and I thought Dothan shaped far better than the losing margin and final position suggested. 

He made a big move to pass beaten rivals on the hometurn, but had to travel very wide to do so and that clearly sapped the energy out of his legs for a final kick. The winner is now unbeaten in two starts, while the runner-up won at the fourth time of asking at Pontefract on Thursday, proving the form is solid.

Dothan returns to the track just 15 days later and should have more than enough in the locker to beat his opponents, providing that he handles the unique undulations at ‘the garden racecourse’.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Dothan (1.35 Ripon) @ 3/1
Daylight (2.25 Newmarket) @ 7/2
Silver Sword (3.40 Newmarket) @ 16/1 each-way
Majestic (3.40 Newmarket) @ 25/1 each-way