Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Gambit can come out on top in strategic York Stakes

It is King George weekend at Ascot and all eyes will be on likely short-priced favourite Auguste Rodin, who is looking to record his seventh Group 1 success under Ryan Moore.

There is no doubting this son of Deep Impact’s ability - you cannot win that many at the top level without being extremely talented - but he hasn’t proved the most consistent over the last couple of years and I think he is hard to trust at prohibitive odds. 

With two pacemakers in the race, it is likely that Auguste Rodin will sit just in behind the speed before trying to power through as the field turns for home. He has won three of his five outings over this 1m4f trip, but it is worth noting that he was a virtual no-show as the 9/4 favourite in this very contest last year. I won’t be surprised if he wins, but I can’t bet him nearing even-money.

The rest of his field all have questions to answer. Bluestocking now steps up to face the boys, Dubai Honour performs better on softer ground, Sunway hasn’t clashed against his elders yet, Luxembourg seems just below the top level now, while Middle Earth needs to improve on his previous outings.

That leaves Rebel’s Romance, who has been a fantastic flagbearer for Godolphin with numerous successes across the globe. He has won 13 of his 19 starts, which includes an impressive five-for-five record in England, and he comes back to these shores after romping home at Sha Tin two months ago. He’s the horse most likely to put it up to Auguste Rodin, but I will be watching as an interested neutral rather than punting in the race.

I will, however, play in the preceding Moet & Chandon International Handicap (3.00 Ascot), an 18-runner sprint on the straight track that usually goes to a runner drawn high. Carrytheone, who has been obviously unlucky in his last two starts, hasn’t had the luxury of a good post by picking up stall six, while Orazio is drawn even further away from the stands’ side in three.

That pointed me towards Billyjoh, who has improved with every start this campaign and still has room for improvement over this intermediate seven-furlong trip. Mick Appleby’s runner kept taking small steps forward over shorter trips, but he seemed to relish the extra stamina test over this distance in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot, where he finished second with an impressive late surge.

When watching that replay your eye will be drawn to the aforementioned Carrytheone, who didn’t get a good passage in the final three furlongs, but Billyjoh posted equally eyecatching sectionals with an 11.89 second split between the two and one furlong pole being comfortably the quickest in the field.

With Rossa Ryan getting back onboard and a nice draw in stall 15, hopefully Billyjoh can notch an elusive big-race victory.

I’m very interested to watch the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes (4.15) later on the Ascot card. Unfortunately this race has cut up a touch since the entry stage with only five horses being declared, but we will still get to see Coventry fifth Al Qudra and a few unexposed types, including the regally-bred Chancellor.

This son of Kingman out of Grade 1-winner Queen’s Trust was all at sea in the opening two furlongs of his debut at Doncaster. Rab Havlin allowed him to gather his stride before bringing him to the stands' side, where he frankly took off under minimal urgings to go from last to first. He didn’t stop once hitting the front, either.

The extra distance will suit him and I’m sure he has a lot of talent. He has to prove that he has matured enough in the 16-day gap since that debut performance, but the small field and conventional straight track at Ascot should be in his favour.

The last race I’ll be playing in on these shores is the Group 2 York Stakes (3.15), which is a fascinating punting heat with last year’s winner Alflaila, the supremely talented but injury-prone Passenger, and sharp three-year-old King’s Gambit opposing one another. 

I respect both Alflaila and Passenger. The former has good York form and ran right up to his best in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, while the latter is a Group 1 performer on his day yet comes into this event with doubts given his recent injury setback. However, I want to keep on the right side of King’s Gambit and he could put his name up in lights here. 

Roger and Harry Charlton’s runner only has to improve around 6lb to win, which seems highly plausible given he’s going to make just his sixth career start. He was super impressive in the London Gold Cup when he beat some similarly unexposed types, before being unlucky when not given the best ride at Ascot.

He was clearly the best horse that day and I can’t help feeling that he would be at least a point shorter in the market had he got his head in front. Consequently, 4/1 seems fair value and I love the booking of Callum Shepherd.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Billyjoh (3.00 Ascot) @ 8/1
King’s Gambit (3.15 York) @ 4/1
Chancellor (4.15 Ascot) @ 6/4