Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Kinross ready for three-peat in City Of York Stakes

An excellent day of punting awaits on Saturday with quality domestic action at York and Newmarket followed by Travers day at Saratoga, so I will save you the time of reading a colourful introduction and instead get straight into my tips.

The first race I’m interested in is the Group 2 City Of York Stakes (3.00), which features top-level winners Audience and Kinross, as well as three-year-old Lake Forest. There may not be an immense amount of depth in the field, but those at the head of the market certainly don’t lack quality.

I’ll begin with Lake Forest, who won the Gimcrack last season before finishing seventh in the Middle Park. I wasn’t sure that he was going to progress during his three-year-old campaign due to his small stature, but he has proved me wrong by filling the runners-up berth in the Commonwealth Cup and the Hackwood Stakes, where he faced his elders for the first time.

He’s obviously very talented and his course form makes him dangerous, but he’s yet to prove that he’s capable of troubling some of the best intermediate sprinters in the country and he may well level off in terms of performance now.

As a result, this could come down to the proven quantities at the top of the market and, although ratings tell you that Audience has almost a stone in hand of Kinross, I’m going to side with the latter as he bids for his third consecutive victory in this event. 

The thing with Audience is that he has only twice run to a mark in excess of 118. The first came in the Lockinge when he had an easy lead and kept galloping, and the latter came on his most recent outing at Goodwood. Was he not flattered on both occasions? He beat Kinross by five lengths in the latter event, but he was right up on a pace that didn’t collapse and clearly received a better ride. 

Even if he produces a similar display, which is by no means a certainty, I believe Kinross has what it takes to reverse the form if he sits closer to the speed. Ralph Beckett’s seven-year-old ran well first-time-up this year at Newcastle, before failing to get involved in Group 1 company over six furlongs, which is short of his best trip. I liked how he stayed on last time and now he will get his ideal conditions for the first time this season.

The Ebor (3.35 York) is next up and it’s an exceptional punting heat with many bookmakers going around 6/1 the field. You can make a case for most, to be honest, but I’ve sided with two runners in a bid to beat what I believe to be a false favourite in Queenstown. How that horse tops the market is beyond me - he should be double his price on what we’ve seen. 

Naqeeb is the first runner I’m interested in and I’m fully aware that he has been a touch disappointing in his career to date. This half-brother of Hukum and Baaeed looked to be going the right way at the end of last season before a slow start this campaign following his gelding operation. 

However, there were clear positive signs from his most recent spin at Newbury and he might just be rounding into form as we enter this meeting. We know that William Haggas loves to target York’s big days and I’m pretty sure that Naqeeb, who has assured stamina over the trip, is well enough handicapped off his mark of 105.

My other selection is a bit left-field and that’s Crystal Delight, who could grab minor money for trainer Harry Eustace. This gelding bolted up in a couple of competitive handicaps to start this season, which included the Jorvik Handicap (an Ebor trial) back in May.

His only run since was a disappointing one at Newmarket in Listed company, but he has been given time to freshen up for what has been his seasonal target. Maybe he’s not good enough to justify a mark in the mid-100s, but I think he is being overlooked at around 25/1 and I love the jockey booking of Tom Marquand.

It’s off to Newmarket for the final two selections, starting with Quinault in the Listed Hopeful Stakes (3.55) for trainer Stuart Williams. This reliable and gutsy performer won a string of handicaps last year that saw his mark rise from 59 up to 102. He began this year relatively slowly, albeit in Group company, before returning to something like his best at Chester last time. 

He proved that he can make an impact at Listed level with that victory and I’m excited to see how he performs in what looks to be another winnable spot on the July Course. This track and trip should play to his strengths and he's sure to adopt his usual front-running tactics in a race that lacks other notable speed angles. 

Twilight Calls brings class into the race, Sakheer is yet to build on his early promise, while Funny Story and Vadream could make an impact, but Quinault is the most consistent of the bunch and should go close under Marco Ghiani. 

Finally, I’m going to bet three-year-old Subsequent against his elders in the 0-95 handicap (4.30) on Newmarket’s card. Assail is a big danger for David Simcock, but I’m not yet convinced that he loves turf and that was the deciding factor in this pick.

Subsequent is still a pretty raw horse, but it was hard not to be taken by his finishing efforts when he won at Haydock and Salisbury earlier this year - he shaped like an animal ready to rise up through the grades over 1m6f and 2m. The latter of those successes saw him beat Spaceport, who has recently won off a 5lb higher mark at Sandown and boosted the form in the process.

Subsequent’s most recent display was better than it looks, too, as he completely blew the start on a track that clearly suited prominent racers all week. He ran home well under minimal urgings and has been left on the same mark as a result. Hopefully he can gain compensation under Callum Hutchinson. 

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Kinross (3.00 York) @ 3/1
Naqeeb (3.35 York) @ 12/1
Crystal Delight (3.35 York) @ 28/1
Quinault (3.55 Newmarket) @ 5/1
Subsequent (4.30 Newmarket) @ 9/4