Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins heads to Chester for his two best bets

Weather forecasts indicate that autumn is firmly on the horizon with plenty of rain expected in the south of England over the next week. Newbury should feel the brunt of it prior to racing this weekend, so it feels wise to side with horses proven on testing ground if you’re playing their Saturday card. 

The showpiece event is the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes (3.15), which hasn’t drawn up to be the most exciting of renewals in recent years. The fact that the market leader, Powerful Glory, is entering the race on the back of winning a weak Pontefract maiden tells you as much. He could be a good horse - they key word being ‘could’ - but he is priced up on potential and reputation and that rarely equals a good bet.

I'm of the opinion that Shadow Of Light and Symbol Of Strength are the horses to beat with official ratings of 108 and 107 respectively after their Gimcrack places. The latter is half interesting here given he’s a fair price and seems to be improving, but if I think that then I have to strongly consider Brian, who finished two places behind him in the Sirenia last time and shaped like the best horse.

This son of Shaman has proved extremely consistent throughout his two-year-old campaign and, although he’s something of a proven quantity now, that doesn’t detract from the fact that he ticks more boxes than most yet is available at a double-figure price. Not only is he a proven course winner with form linking him into the highest-rated horses in the race, but he has also confirmed that he handles soft ground.

In fact, his two best turf runs have come with cut underfoot so the downpours of rain expected on Saturday morning should prove to be a blessing rather than a hindrance. Furthermore, he has drawn stall one which I would consider a positive on this straight track. I quite like him to grab a place at a good value price.

The racing at Ayr is far too competitive and open for my money and I generally don’t bet at Scottish venues, so I’m going to focus on Chester for my remaining two picks. The Liverpool track has proved a profitable place for me in recent weeks and hopefully that will continue. 

First up is Roman Dragon, a course specialist who runs in the 5f handicap (4.15) for trainer Hugo Palmer and crack apprentice Sean D Bowen. This five-time Chester winner is on a 12-month winless drought in the UK, but his last win came on this card 12 months ago and there is every chance that he will follow up now that he’s down to a workable mark of 90.

I thought he shaped very well when second over six furlongs here last time, mainly because he was drawn in stall 11 that day and had to launch his challenge very wide on the track in the latter stages. That was a big return to form and it wouldn’t be a shock if he went one place better now that he has been allocated an inside gate.

The one concern I have is the drop down to the minimum trip. There is a chance that the leaders just get away from him and even a late surge won’t prove enough, but hopefully Bowen will be alert to that possibility and get after Roman Dragon sooner rather than later.

Finally, it would be remiss of me not to bet a horse ridden by Franny Norton given it’s his last day riding at his favourite track. He has numerous chances, but the one I’m most taken by is Small Fry in the 1m6½f handicap (4.45) late on the card.

There seems to be a fair amount of speed in this race - Dreams Adozen, who Norton was originally booked on before switching at the declaration stage, and Percy Jones are just two forwardly placed horses here - and that should set it up for a stalker or closer, dramatically increasing Small Fry’s chance of success.

Gary and Josh Moore’s three-year-old has taken big strides in his progression in the last month and he bounced back from a slightly below-par runner-up display on his penultimate outing to win with his head in his chest at Epsom last time. Not only did he prove that he wants soft ground that day, but he also handled the camber on the Downs and that stands him in great stead ahead of his tilt at Chester.

The handicapper decided to be lenient and give him just a 5lb rise after his latest success, which doesn’t seem anything like enough to stop him following up this weekend. Hopefully Norton can go out with a bang by riding Small Fry to victory.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Brian (3.15 Newbury) @ 10/1 each-way
Roman Dragon (4.15 Chester) @ 10/3
Small Fry (4.45 Chester) @ 10/3