Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins has three selections on 2,000 Guineas day

I hope you don’t have plans this weekend! Buckle up for one of the best two days of the entire year with the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket sandwiching the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Wall-to-wall racing for 24 hours, enjoy.

The obvious starting point is the aforementioned Qipco 2000 Guineas (3.35 Newmarket), in which City Of Troy will go off a short-priced favourite. He won well on debut at the Curragh before smashing a decent field in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes, after which I backed him at 14/1 for the Derby. In hindsight, I wish I had doubled up in the Guineas ante post market too.

He only increased my lofty opinion of him when he hacked up in the Dewhurst and there’s a great chance that he will be even better this term. I’m pretty confident that he will get a mile and a half, so the mile on Saturday won’t be an issue, and he’s just by far the best horse in the race. I’m looking forward to watching him stamp his authority on this division.

This column is about finding decent bets, though, and I will be looking at a couple of handicaps on the Newmarket card for those. The first race of interest is the wide-open and competitive William Hill Suffolk Stakes (2.20), which features 16 runners. 

John and Thady Gosden have entered Torito, who could be the class of the race as he exits Group 3 company. However, I don’t want to take a single-figure price on a horse who has plenty to prove now that he comes back off a long 317-day layoff having been gelded in the interim.

Liberty Lane is another runner to note given he has dabbled in Group races in his past, but he was pretty underwhelming in the Lincoln at a short price and this ground might be quick enough for him. The opposite can be said for Lion Of War, who makes his seasonal reappearance after dabbling in a couple of Graded races Stateside due to his desire for firm ground.

I prefer race fitness at this time of year and the key piece of form is a Newmarket handicap from the Craven meeting 18 days ago. The race was won by Hafeet Alain, Dutch Decoy finished second, Theoryofeverything ran brilliantly for fourth from a terrible position, Majestic took fifth, and Bopedro came eighth.

There was a big bias towards prominent racers at that meeting and therefore I’m most interested in the two David O’Meara-trained runners. Theoryofeverything is the obvious one given how much ground he made up, but Bopedro raced on the wrong side of the track and was still only beaten two-and-a-quarter lengths. 

Given his impressive course form and an advantageous draw in stall 16 this time (more pace on his side), I wouldn’t be surprised to see the eight-year-old go close off a mark just 2lb higher than when last successful.

My other selection at Newmarket is perhaps a little more obvious. I have been following Flying Finn in the early part of this season and he has rewarded me with two victories, so it makes sense to keep on the right side of the only horse who has beaten him. Eye Of Dubai is the gelding in question and he runs in the 6f handicap (4.45) under William Buick.

Eye Of Dubai put three lengths between himself and Flying Finn on testing ground at Catterick in April despite giving that rival 8lb. Flying Finn is now rated 83, so it’s perfectly plausible to suggest that Eye Of Dubai is well treated off just 85 in this event on Saturday.

He proved his ability by crossing the line in front at Newmarket last time, although he was subsequently disqualified for interference, and I love the drop back in trip to six furlongs for such a strong-travelling sprinter.

Off to Goodwood next for the Listed Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (2.05), which features a major recent eyecatcher in Choisya. This four-year-old almost overcame a poor setup (positioned last off a slow gallop) at Kempton last time and seems to be firing on all cylinders early in the campaign. 

She developed into a nice type in the backend of last season and has prior winning course form at this unique track, which is a big positive. A small field helps her and she has run well on soft ground in the past. Novus is a major danger in first-time cheekpieces but I’ll take the improver in this line-up.

 It would be foolish not to mention the Qipco 1000 Guineas (3.40 Newmarket) on Sunday. It’s pretty hard to be confident on any horse in this year’s renewal and I expect we will see the poor record of favourites in the event (one winner since 2008) continue.

Fallen Angel should improve for the extra distance, though this is the toughest field she’s ever faced, while Ylang Ylang may not have the speed to go with the protagonists when they quicken. She will get better over a mile and a quarter later in the campaign. Ramatuelle and Dance Sequence come into the race on the back of defeats but have strong enough claims.

 However, I’m going to take a small chance on See The Fire for Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy. This filly was very good on her debut and backed it up with a fine run in the May Hill behind a soft ground specialist.  

I thought Murphy used her up a little too soon in the Fillies’ Mile when she was beaten by Ylang Ylang and a more patient ride could see her finish off to better effect. She has been overlooked somewhat in the market.

You may be thinking: What about the Kentucky Derby? This is the race I’ve been waiting for all winter and I can’t wait to watch it. I’m going to keep it brief - you can find more analysis and my other tips via my Twitter - but my main selection is Catching Freedom at 10/1.

He is improving a good rate of knots, won the Louisiana Derby in great fashion, gets Flavien Prat on board and has drawn well in gate four. If they go too hard up front, he will be closing out the race as well as anything. 

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Choisya (2.05 Goodwood) @ 4/1
Bopedro (2.20 Newmarket) @ 11/1
Eye Of Dubai (4.45 Newmarket) @ 5/1
Catching Freedom (11.57 Churchill Downs) @ 10/1
See The Fire (3.40 Newmarket, Sunday) @ 9/1