Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins has four selections for Super Saturday

Saturday afternoon racing from Newmarket, York and Ascot is never going to be bad, but this weekend’s fare certainly spoils punters with lots of competitive and quality contests across the three meetings.

It is pretty tricky to isolate the best bets considering there is value on offer in the majority of races, but I managed to reduce the shortlist down to just four horses - two shorter prices and two bigger prices. I’ll begin with the latter pair.

The Group 1 Darley July Cup (4.35 Newmarket) is the featured event on Saturday, a six-furlong sprint where we will see the three-year-olds tackle their elders. Unsurprisingly, the older horses have tallied the most wins in this contest over the years but it is interesting to see the tide turning with the Classic generation posting 14 wins in the last 35 renewals. 

This year’s group of three-year-olds looks particularly strong and many punters will fall on Inisherin, River Tiber or Vandeek. The latter pair met in two Group 1 sprints last year - the Prix Morny and the Middle Park - and Vandeek got the better of River Tiber on both occasions. I thought they were both open to significant improvement going into this season, but so far they have both disappointed, River Tiber more so than his fragile counterpart.

Given they are high up in the betting with something to prove, neither really appeal to me. The same can’t be said for Inisherin, who has quickly become the flagbearer for this division. However, he hasn’t been missed in the market after his Commonwealth Cup success and therefore I’m more interested in Jasour, who is six times his price yet doesn’t have much to find on form.

Clive Cox’s runner was a cut below the best last year, but he clearly improved a great deal of the winter and I was mightily impressed by his comeback win at Ascot. He beat Adaay In Devon, who has won at Listed level since, and Purosangue, who finished third in Group 3 company last time.

Jasour then went to the Commonwealth Cup and attracted plenty of market support, but he missed the kick and then pulled fiercely for two furlongs, basically costing himself any chance in the process. Nevertheless, he moved into the race very well and was only put in his place by Inisherin late in the day. If he settles better, he could easily hit the frame.

Onto York’s highlight, the John Smith’s Cup (3.10), for my other longshot which is Astro King for Daniel and Claire Kubler. We know all about this seven-year-old - he isn’t a well-handicapped type or one that is going to take a big step forward - but he is very classy, he loves the track, and he ran excellently to finish second in this race last year.

Astro King followed that runner-up display by winning a handicap at this track in August, before coming back to win the Cambridgeshire off a mark of 107. He’s had five starts since - two abroad and three in Group races here - and he hasn’t been disgraced once. Now he drops down in grade off just 2lb higher than his biggest success and should get a lovely pace to chase. 

Hopefully Astro King can provide his connections with another big day, though I will be betting him each-way not just straight up. Interestingly, he has drawn well in stall 14 while the three form horses (Haunted Dream, Epic Poet and Liberty Lane) have all been pitched out wide.

It’s time to move onto the more confident win plays now and I’ll begin with Quddwah, who I expect to justify favouritism in the Group 2 Summer Mile (2.20) at Ascot for trainer Charlie Fellowes.

This horse was a big baby last year, but he still won both of his races and beat a couple of nice types. He learned on the job first time up at Salisbury then won despite failing to handle the undulations and carrying his head high at Newmarket. Fellowes then rightly gave him time off to mature and develop.

He came back this year in a pretty hot Listed event here in May, where he produced a power-packed finish to run down Docklands and Maljoom. Those two horses have subsequently boosted the form by finishing second and third in the Group 1 Queen Anne at the Royal meeting. 

It doesn’t look like the best renewal of the Summer Mile and he doesn’t need to improve much to win. Given he has course form and should get a nice setup, there is little not to like about Quddwah’s chances this weekend.

 Finally, it’s back to Newmarket for their closing 0-90 1m4f handicap (5.10), which features a selection of very well-treated three-year-olds facing off against their elders. Poniros, who finished second in the London Gold Cup earlier this year, and the improving Lord Of Love are major players for shrewd connections, but I want to stick with the in-form Wonder Kid.

This big, scopey gelding looked lost in three novice runs over a mile last year and he was subsequently gelded and put away for the winter with a nice-looking official rating next to his name.

He came back to the track after a 190-day break at Newbury last month and absolutely romped home despite still looking inexperienced and raw (hung across the track). I thought that field contained plenty of unexposed prospects, so the fact that he virtually won it in a hack canter suggested he was more than chucked in off 70.

Unsurprisingly, trainer Hugo Palmer brought him back to the track just eight days later under a penalty and he struck again with similar ease. The handicapper has reassessed him now, but he’s only given him an 8lb rise and a huge case could be made that his decision was pretty lenient.

The uphill finish on the July Course suits him and I like the booking of James Doyle. Hopefully he can end the afternoon on a high before Saratoga begins!

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Quddwah (2.20 Ascot) @ 9/5
Astro King (3.10 York) @ 28/1
Jasour (4.35 Newmarket) @ 16/1
Wonder Kid (5.10 Newmarket) @ 7/2