Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins has three must-see selections

One inspection down, one to go. Cheltenham’s glittering nine-race card, which includes the Cotswold Chase and re-routed Clarence House, will have to pass another test on Saturday to go ahead.

Frost covers have been deployed and the overnight forecast doesn’t look that bleak so we should be racing. However, racing fans have said that on a number of occasions over the last six weeks and seen contrasting outcomes, so let's keep our fingers crossed.

Both aforementioned featured contests look like match races between the top two in the respective markets. Energumene and Edwardstone should have it between them in the Clarence House (1.20), while Grand National winner Noble Yeats and Betfair Chase victor Protektorat outclass their rivals in the Cotswold (2.25). I’d take Energumene and Noble Yeats if you pushed me for a pick in each, but I won’t be parting with my cash. 

However, the final two races on the Cheltenham card interest me from a punting perspective. First up is the 2m4½f Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (3.35), which has seen runners at the forefront of the market dominate in recent years. In fact, nine of the last ten winners were sent off at 7-1 or shorter, while the only exception (Ordo Ab Chao, 16-1) only narrowly defeated 11-10 favourite Value At Risk back in 2015.

Of course, one year differs from the next and some will believe that this trend has little bearing. My takeaway is that there is normally little depth in this race - this could be for numerous reasons that includes lack of Irish challengers, small group of Ballymore hopefuls and placement in the racing calendar - and this year’s edition looks to have a similar overview.

Although I respect Dan Skelton’s Pembroke, I much prefer the claims of Henri The Second, who will sport a first-time tongue-tie for Paul Nicholls. The ditcheat trainer hasn’t had a runner for two weeks due to flu vaccinations, so you have to take on trust that his entries this weekend have fully recovered, but I find it intriguing that he’s entered this six-year-old in a race he rarely targets.

Nicholls has only had two runners in this heat in the last decade. Vago Collonges, who finished third behind Ordo Ab Chao and Value At Risk in that aforementioned boilover in 2015, and Topofthegame, who finished fourth in 2017 before going on to win a Grade 1 over fences. Henri The Second now takes the leap, which, considering he was mentioned as one of their leading novice hurdlers after his Sandown win, catches the eye.

The imposing gelding has already taken the scalp of Deere Mark (subsequent three-time winner), Authorised Speed (subsequent three-time winner), Hugo's New Horse (won twice since) and Scarface (won twice since) in his career, and remains open to loads of improvement after just five starts.

He has to give away 5lb to the majority of his opponents, but I don’t think that will stop him. Don’t forget, his only two defeats have come in a bumper at Aintree (sustained a cut to his leg and was pulled up) and when second to the talented Chianti Classico on his seasonal reappearance. As a result, it’s hard to oppose him here.

In the following SSS Super Alloys Handicap Hurdle (4.10), I’m going to take a chance on another lightly raced type in Pikar. This six-year-old is bred to run on the flat and possesses plenty of speed, which is why it was unsurprising to see him falter in the closing stages over an extended 2m4f at Newbury last time out on extremely testing ground.

Put a line through that run and you have an interesting proposition. Pikar began his career by finishing a length second to Knappers Hill, a subsequent Grade 2 winner who has dotted up on no fewer than five occasions since that success, and followed that by falling in a Supreme trial here and a fifth-placed finish behind Jonbon at Haydock.

Despite keeping lofty company in those events, it was his comeback run at Chepstow that attracted me to him. Pikar bolted up by five lengths in a race that is working out particularly well while simultaneously hinting that his mark in the mid-120s was way too low. His only handicap effort came on unsuitable conditions last time, so this might be the first occasion that we really see what he’s made of. Harry Skelton also gets down to 10st 3lb to ride, which shouldn’t be overlooked.

Finally, I’m keen on Autonomous Cloud in the penultimate contest at Uttoxeter, a 3m2f handicap chase (3.42). Perhaps this horse’s form figures will put you off (33222 on his last five starts), but I believe his consistent places are due to inadequate tests of stamina and ill-judged rides, rather than a lack of determination and willingness to win.

Autonomous Cloud has shown a good level of improvement the last twice when stepped up in trip to 2m7f and I’m sure jockey Adrian Heskin wished he was closer to the eventual winner when the field turned in at Lingfield 38 days ago. 

Trainer Fergal O’Brien now steps him up in distance, which should be the catalyst for another improved display, and pitches him into the worst 0-120 he has contested. If he doesn’t win this, I won’t be backing him again!

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Henri The Second (3.35 Cheltenham) @ 5.4
Autonomous Cloud (3.42 Uttoxeter) @ 3.05
Pikar (4.10 Cheltenham) @ 6.2