Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Drop into a handicap can see Saint shine

Kempton is undoubtedly one of my favourite racecourses. The Sunbury-on-Thames track may not rival the Cheltenham atmosphere, have the history of Doncaster and Aintree, or boast the facilities at Sandown, but it’s proved to be a lucky place for me in the past and has its own individual and unique qualities. 

I’ll be heading to the track on Saturday to enjoy their quality seven-race card, which is headed by the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (3.00). This contest has been won by Clondaw Castle (2021) and Cap Du Nord (2022) over the last two years, and both of those former champions are returning once again for another crack at the £85,425 first prize.

It’s impossible not to fear Cap Du Nord given how easily he won at Ascot just seven days ago. Christian Williams has had a pretty quiet year, but he regularly targets these big staying chases and his booking of Irish 5lb conditional Cian Quirke suggests they are trying to strike while the iron is hot.

Cap Du Nord is a pretty hard horse to catch right - he’s won eight times in a 44-race career and can go months without threatening in his races - but he remains pretty well handicapped on his best efforts and clearly likes this track. 

The only potential negative is the quick turnaround, and that was just enough to put me off. This ten-year-old usually returns around 28 days after his most recent race - stayers can take time to recover from one start to the next - and the quick return could see him put up a below-par performance. You have to go back to early 2020 to find the last time he raced twice within a short period of time, and he disappointed then after an eight-day break.

Clondaw Castle was the last off my shortlist given his affinity for this course, but I prefer the chances of Saint Calvados at a similar price. Paul Nicholls has campaigned this ten-year-old pretty aggressively since he switched from Harry Whittington’s yard, and this marks the first time that he will run in a handicap since January 2020, when he finished a nose second at Cheltenham off a mark of 157.

Saint Calvados now competes off just 154 (3lb lower) and gets the assistance of leading rider Harry Cobden, who takes over from owner David Maxwell in the saddle. Maxwell couldn’t control this headstrong individual the last twice, so Cobden’s softer hands and greater experience could prove to be the difference, and I’m happy to take that chance at 7/1.

There is good all-weather racing over at Lingfield, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on proceedings there. The feature is the Group 3 Winter Derby (2.05), in which the banker of the afternoon runs.

John Gosden has targeted a couple of his older horses at this race over the last few years, and he’s had good success with three victories in the last four renewals. The anomaly was last year when Alenquer fended off Lord North in a red-hot edition.

Lord North has run in Group races ever since and now returns to right that wrong. Rated 118, and therefore a whopping 15lb better than any of his rivals this time around, this seven-year-old should prove mighty difficult to beat and deserves to be much shorter than his current price.

He returns off a long layoff, which is a positive (form figures of 112112 after breaks of 100 days or longer), and he beat second-favourite Forest Of Dean by six lengths in this contest last year. There is no reason why that rival, or any of the others for that matter, should beat him if he brings his A-game.

The following mile handicap (2.40) may not contain a ‘good thing’, but I made Diderot 3/1 in my market and he is available at almost double that price. John Ferguson’s Irish import got off the mark at the first time of asking for new connections last January, but has followed that with seven subsequent defeats.

Nevertheless, he performed well on a couple of occasions on synthetic surfaces before running poorly on turf in the summer (he’s not a grass horse). His return at Southwell really caught the eye given that track doesn’t suit, and I fully expect him to take a big leap forward now that he returns to a sharper track.

Are you trying to find a second selection to make up a double with UK banker Lord North? Look no further than Carl Spackler, who will make his second start for trainer Chad Brown in the $84,000 maiden special weight (10.37) that closes the Gulfstream card. 

This son of Lope De Vega was purchased from the Tattersalls Sale in Newmarket in October 2021 for $499,172 and made an exceptionally promising debut when he was beaten by a head this January.

Carl Spackler and eventual winner Far Bridge drew six lengths clear of some experienced and equally promising types that day, and in doing so hinted that they were both well capable of performing in Graded Stakes races in the future. 

This race doesn’t look anywhere near as hot, yet he’s priced on the Morning Line at 6/5. I will be (pleasantly) surprised if he opens odds-against, but snap it up if he does.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Lord North (2.05 Lingfield) @ 1.8
Diderot (2.40 Lingfield) @ 6.8
Saint Calvados (3.00 Kempton) @ 8.2
Carl Spackler (10.37 Gulfstream Park) @ anything bigger than 1.8 (4/5)