Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins selects two UK outsiders and a US banker

Fakir D’Oudairies, Shishkin and Pic D’Orhy will contest the featured Ascot Chase on Saturday and, although it figures to be an informative race, there isn’t much value on offer.

Perhaps Shishkin will return to something like his brilliant best and therefore delight horse racing fans, who are desperate to see the former champion sparkle once more. It would be the good news story of the day if that was the case, though it’s more likely that Fakir D’Oudairies backs up last year’s victory in the race for Joseph O’Brien.

As both are about the right price, I’ll sit back and watch the Ascot Chase as an intrigued neutral. There are Grade 2 events elsewhere, as well as a Grand National trial at Haydock, but I thought the jumps action this weekend was extremely trappy and instead decided to focus on the all-weather.

The first race of interest is the 1m2f talkSPORT Download The App Handicap (4.33) at Lingfield, which features just five runners. Despite the small field, this three-year-old-only contest looks a pretty good race for the grade with three previous winners and an in-form and fit rival among those set to go to post.

Emperor Zen is sure to be popular off topweight on the back of a solid runners-up effort at Wolverhampton 11 days ago. Trainer John Butler is stepping him back up in trip, which is likely to suit, and he ran nicely over this course and distance on his penultimate outing. However, the handicapper has given him another 1lb for his most recent start and a bigger field would have been preferable.

Berwick Law finished just one place behind Emperor Zen at this track in December and is weighted to reverse the form, but he subsequently finished two-and-three-quarter-lengths behind Densetsu and may struggle to turn that around. There’s seemingly little to split that trio, while a line through Richard Hannon’s three-year-old Outrace gives Strike Alliance a similar chance.

The outlier is Simon Dow’s Desfondado, who has achieved the least on the track but remains open to far more improvement than most. This colt is bred for middle distances and therefore wouldn’t have been suited by 7f or 1m½f in his runs last year. Nevertheless, he caught the eye on each outing, largely due to his noteworthy acceleration when the pace quickened.

Coming off a winter layoff provides some fitness concerns, but he’s instantly stepped up in distance (huge positive) and begins handicap life off a lenient-looking mark of 70. At a massive price, Desfondado gets the vote.

It’s over to Newcastle for the second selection, which is the John Quinn-trained Titan Rock in the 7f handicap (7.00). This race is littered with all-weather specialists and former course winners, not least Adeb and Perfect Swiss, but Titan Rock drops into a Class 4 handicap for the first time in his career and is now 5lb lower than when last successful.

Although an early-season target on turf might be in the pipeline, Titan Rock ran well enough under tender handling last time out at Southwell and will surely prefer the layout of Newcastle on Saturday. 

Despite not loving his draw, Titan Rock has been overlooked in the market at around 13/2 and should be supported, whether that’s following me in with a win play or instead taking advantage of the flat-eight runners and each-way option.

Saturday’s feature at Gulfstream Park is the $150,000 Grade 3 Royal Delta Stakes (10.06), a 1m½f dirt contest for fillies and mares. 

This year’s edition has only attracted a field of seven runners, and three of them (Don’t Get Khozy, Jungle Juice and Soul Of An Angel) look well overmatched as they go up in class. The same could be said for Tampa shipper Tap Dance Fever, though her price won’t reflect that.

I always respect John Terranova runners so Midnight Stroll, who won the Delaware Oaks last year, wasn’t easy to write off. But she will need to improve off the layoff and she might get roughed up back in the pack unless jockey Edgard Zayas decides to get aggressive and go forward. 

The same applies to Todd Pletcher’s Classy Edition, who might open up as favourite under Irad Ortiz. This four-year-old filly boasts plenty of natural speed and could get the dream trip up front, but I wasn’t all that taken by her performances in the Davona Dale or Gazelle Stakes last year and everything went her way on the comeback effort at this track last month. The removal of Lasix gives me another cause for concern.

That leaves Kathleen O, a filly I’ve wanted to keep onside since her winning debut at Saratoga back in September 2021. Shug McGaughey’s charge followed that success with three consecutive victories at this venue, including the Davona Dale (she beat Classy Edition comfortably) and the Gulfstream Oaks, before finishing a highly creditable fifth in the Kentucky Oaks when conditions went against her.

Following a six-month layoff, Kathleen O returned to the track in the Comely Stakes at Aqueduct in November and ran really well once again to finish second, and the switch back to Gulfstream will surely see her in better light. Almost everything is in her favour here - the only factor that could see this deep closer come unstuck is a slow early gallop.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Desfondado (4.33 Lingfield) @ 13
Titan Rock (7.00 Newcastle) @ 7.8
Kathleen O (10.06 Gulfstream) @ 2.38 (11/8) or bigger