Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Novel can become a legend for punters at Kempton

Inclement weather has yet again caused havoc with horse racing fixtures over the last seven days. Seven meetings had to be abandoned during the week, while the cancellation of Stratford and Kelso and grim forecast for Uttoxeter on Saturday has left jumps fans with little to look forward to.

Fortunately, there are a couple of nice all-weather cards at Kempton and Chelmsford to liven up an otherwise quiet weekend. The latter-named Essex venue hosts the Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes (3.30 Chelmsford), a points race for the Kentucky Derby. It’s extremely unlikely that you will see any of these horses run at Churchill Downs next month, but it’s still a pretty exciting contest.

Aidan O’Brien will send over Capulet, who finished third in the Group 2 Royal Lodge last season. Ryan Moore’s mount could improve a great deal this term and might be one for Epsom come June with stamina looking assured in his pedigree. He will face recent Newcastle winner Cuban Tiger, the race-fit Orne, and Bracken’s Laugh among others this weekend.

As much as the event excites me, it doesn’t really appeal from a punting perspective. I don’t fully know what to expect from Capulet on seasonal reappearance and he’s short enough in the betting anyway, while those who have been plying their trade on the all-weather this spring have to significantly improve on figures.

Consequently, I will be heading over to Kempton for my two UK bets before becoming immersed in the action at Keeneland in the evening. The first wager will be on Novel Legend in the Queen’s Prize Handicap (3.15 Kempton), a two-mile contest for horses rated between 0-100. 

This five-year-old just creeps into that bracket with a mark of 98 and will have to carry topweight, but there is a good chance that he is even more talented than his current rating suggests. Novel Legend took giant leaps at the start of last season with a reappearance victory here followed by a six-length romp at Newbury.

Consistent efforts followed, which included a runners-up finish behind the subsequently Grade 2-placed Sweet William as well as a Goodwood success. Trainer James Fanshawe isn’t one to pitch his horses in at the deep end unless he believes it’s necessary, so autumn tilts at the Irish Cesarewitch and Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak have to be taken seriously despite his below par displays.

He now returns after a 160-day break off a nice mark and will break from a good draw in stall five. I would be disappointed if he didn’t go very close and confirm that he has a bright future in black type races over long trips.

My other selection will require a little more luck as I like Desert Cop in the 6f handicap (4.55 Kempton) that ends the card. Breaking from stall 12 of 12 is never ideal and Oisin Murphy will have his work cut out early. That being said, a little too much is made of wide draws here as sitting one off the rail in midpack regularly proves to be beneficial in the homestraight. 

Desert Cop won his maiden over this course and distance in February last year before romping home in the three-year-old contest on All-Weather Championships Finals day at Newcastle. He was stepped up in grade thereafter and ran respectably against some of the best sprinters around, especially when he produced a career-best to take sixth in the Group 1 King’s Stand at Royal Ascot.

Performances like that can take a lot out of a young horse and I’m willing to overlook his efforts at the back-end of last season and chalk them down to being past his peak. The handicapper eventually relented and has allowed him to compete off just 97 on his return to action.

Fresh, who has run well in this event for the last two years, recent winner Knebworth, and the well-handicapped Watchya are all dangers, but I’ll take a punt on Desert Cop and hope that he finds a nice position early.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Novel Legend (3.15 Kempton) @ 4/1
Desert Cop (4.55 Kempton) @ 7/1