Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Caso No Mento set for first Listed victory in Taunton feature

Newbury’s Grade 1 Challow Hurdle headlines proceedings on the final Saturday of 2023 and it should be a pretty informative race with the unbeaten Willmount taking on Grade 2 winner Captain Teague and the unexposed Johnnywho.

Although the result will shake up the Supreme and Ballymore markets, it’s not much of a betting medium for me. Unlimited potential is factored into Willmount’s price and he is short enough as a result, so it would be foolish for me to recommend backing him. And I’m just concerned about all those absences on Johnnywho’s CV.

I have a strong suspicion that Captain Teague is the value play for trainer Paul Nicholls, who has targeted this race and won it for the last three years. But is he the most logical winner? Probably not. Consequently, I’m going to look elsewhere for my bets and watch the Challow as an interested neutral. 

Just two horses across the cards caught my attention from a punting perspective. My best bet comes at Taunton in the form of Casa No Mento, who runs in the Listed Byerley Stud Mares’ Novice Hurdle (2.10) for trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies.

This five-year-old performed to a high level in bumpers last season. She hacked up by 12 lengths on her rules debut at Hereford, before finishing second in a Listed contest at Sandown and taking a midfield finish in the Grade 2 event on Aintree Bowl day. 

Following a 170-day break, Casa No Mento began her hurdling career and has notched one-sided victories at Market Rasen (six lengths) and Hereford (15 lengths) this season. Twiston-Davies immediately suggested that this Taunton contest would be her main goal and everything seems to have gone well in the build-up.

Good ground and a relatively flat track are crucial to her chance and she should get those conditions this weekend, which further strengthens her already obvious form claims. Although she has to beat a nice type in Queens Gamble, she’s rated 6lb higher than that rival and is a bigger price. Go figure.

I will head back to Newbury for my only other bet, which will be on the Nicky Henderson-trained Walking On Air in the closing 2m6½f handicap chase (3.35). This one comes with a couple of unknowns: Can he jump a fence? And is he ready to win first up off the layoff? However, his form claims are clear off a lenient looking mark of 138.

Walking On Air developed into a nice hurdler last season and capped off his season with an unlucky fifth-placed finish in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival. Quicker ground had always been a need for him to perform to a high level, so it was surprising how close he got to winning given the tacky underfoot conditions that day. 

Henderson then sent him to Punchestown for a rich prize in April, but he made bad mistakes at the third-last and second-last obstacles and his chance evaporated soon after. 247 days have passed and he now begins his chasing career, which could be the real making of him.

This is a relatively open race with several unexposed types, but I’m convinced that Walking On Air has the ability to earn a rating in the low 150s and therefore he has to be the bet at around 4/1.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Casa No Mento (2.10 Taunton) @ 2/1
Walking On Air (3.35 Newbury) @ 4/1