Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Wrappedupinmay looks ready to score in December
By Tom Collins
Latest Horse Racing Odds22 December 2023
The pre-Christmas showpiece comes at Ascot in the form of the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle, an extended three-mile contest that has been won by a selection of top-quality stayers.
Paisley Park’s name features three times on the roll of honour and Emma Lavelle’s crowd favourite is back once again in an attempt to match Baracouda’s feat of winning the Long Walk on four different occasions. Not even the great Big Buck’s managed to do that.
Although my heart wants Paisley Park to win, this division has been crying out for a new face for a long time now and there is a good chance that he will prove vulnerable to a younger opponent. The same applies to the Nicky Henderson-trained Champ and recent Long Distance Hurdle winner Dashel Drasher, both of whom have also entered their veteran era.
The unexposed types include West Balboa, who heads the market at the time of writing on Thursday, four-year-old Blueking D’Oroux, and the Fergal O’Brien-trained Crambo. The first two horses named are unproven at this level and, although they could easily take a big leap forward, it’s far from a foregone conclusion that will happen here.
It’s also worth noting that West Balboa has only beaten one bona fide Graded-level rival in her whole career, which was Brewin’Upastorm on her comeback at Aintree 42 days ago. Olly Murphy’s runner has been falling short at lower levels than this recently, so beating him may not be much of a scalp anymore.
As a result, I’m more attracted to the slightly bigger price available on Crambo. Official ratings will tell you that he needs to improve a great deal to beat his older rivals, but that’s extremely possible given this will mark just his second attempt over three miles.
He developed into a really nice novice hurdler last year and posted three victories before finishing seventh in the Grade 1 Mersey at Aintree. One of those successes came in the EBF Final, a formline that has worked out phenomenally well with nine next-time-out winners coming from the beaten horses.
Crambo impressed me with the ease in which he put away a well-handicapped horse on his reappearance at Aintree, before being given a circumspect ride at Haydock last time. Connections have decided to switch jockeys to the experienced Johnny Burke (I would have been equally happy with Connor Brace) for what looks a great chance to win a Grade 1.
My only other selection on the day runs in the opening Ascot Racecourse Supports Schools Photography Competition Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (12.40). This contest lacks depth and could be a match between Scamallach Liath and Wrappedupinmay.
Whenever a race has this kind of shape I always want to side with the unexposed horse, and if there’s an added tactical advantage then that tends to seal the deal. Wrappedupinmay likes to get on with things and I’m sure that rider Harry Cobden will try to dictate matters from the front, which should rule out any chance of an excuse.
The combination have adopted those tactics on both outings this year and he’s been beaten at a short price on each occasion, but I’m pretty sure the two rivals who have collared him possess a high level of ability. Deafening Silence, who shocked Wrappedupinmay’s supporters last time at Exeter, has already proven that by subsequently plundering a Grade 2 hurdle at Sandown and earning a rating of 135 in the process.
Wrappedupinmay’s mark of 118 looks pretty lenient on that basis and I’m pretty sure that he will improve for the step back up in distance given he looks a three-mile chasing type for the future. Despite his recent defeats, don’t jump off the bandwagon just yet as this might be the time to catch him.