Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Well-handicapped three-year-olds bookend Tom Collins’ picks

Sacred’s withdrawal from the featured Hungerford Stakes at the final declaration stage has blown the race apart. William Haggas’ filly, who took the event two years ago, would have been mighty difficult to beat.

The Group 2 event (3.35 Newbury) has a completely different shape now with the Richard Hannon-trained Chindit owning favouritism after finishing second and sixth in the Lockinge and Queen Anne respectively. His Group 1 form and rating of 115 stands out like a sore thumb in this field, but I’m concerned that he’s only recorded one mid-season victory since his two-year-old campaign.

All of his other successes have come on seasonal reappearance - he has form figures of 1111 first time up, and those races have been at maiden, Group 3 and Listed (twice) level. He’s generally fallen short in this grade, last year’s Summer Mile win aside, and I believe he will be vulnerable once again.

I prefer Jumby, who provided trainer Eve Johnson Houghton with a famous victory in this race 12 months ago. This five-year-old was sent off at 9/1 and broke slowly that day, but he scythed through the pack inside the final two furlongs and readily recorded his first Group success, earning a Racing Post Rating of 116 in the process.

Despite struggling to match that level of performance in his three subsequent starts last season and first two runs in 2023, Jumby has seemingly returned to form with a vengeance in the last two months and his John Of Gaunt victory suggests he’s right back on song.

He raced on the wrong part of the track in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket last time yet finished a good second behind the enterprisingly ridden Audience, and the return to Newbury should keep him firing at the top of his ability. I will take him to retain his crown under Charlie Bishop.

Two other runners interest me on the Newbury card. Let’s start with Greek Order, who will go to post in the closing 0-95 handicap (5.15) under Oisin Murphy.

This Juddmonte-owned son of Kingman ran very well on his first three starts, but was unfortunate to bump into some smart types. He finished third behind horses rated 95 and 93 on debut at Sandown last year, before narrowly failing to get his head in front at the second time of asking when denied by a 96-rated Godolphin trainee in a thrilling finish.

After a long winter break, Greek Order returned with a creditable third behind two horses rated 95, so it was somewhat surprising that the handicapper decided to give him an opening mark of 80! He took advantage of that last time at Sandown in authoritative fashion, and a subsequent 5lb rise shouldn’t stop him following up.

Finally, look no further than the Richard Hannon-trained Classic in the highly competitive 7f handicap (3.00 Newbury). This three-year-old has always been well regarded by connections - Hannon was quoted as saying ‘It wouldn’t surprise me to see him turn up at the top level’ after his maiden victory last season.

His career hasn’t yet panned out as anticipated, but he took a big step in the right direction last time at Sandown when he comfortably fended off subsequent Glorious Goodwood hero Novus under a hands-and-heels ride from Pat Dobbs.

He’s been hit with a minor 2lb rise for that success with the handicapper opting to turn down a reassessment of his mark since Novus’ victory, which surely leaves him well treated. He also gets a handy 5lb weight-for-age allowance against his elders in this heat.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Classic (3.00 Newbury) @ 8/1
Jumby (3.35 Newbury) @ 7/2
Greek Order (5.15 Newbury) @ SP