Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Illinois ready to land antepost punt for Tom Collins

I don’t share the opinion of many that this year’s St Leger is weak. Granted, we might not have the best group of jockeys in the race with Ryan Moore, Oisin Murphy and William Buick all riding elsewhere, but the seven-runner field is strong and intriguing.

We have the Grand Prix de Paris runner-up, Irish Derby runner-up, Derby fourth and Irish Oaks winner in the line-up alongside an unbeaten colt with the potential to be a superstar. Maybe we lack a big name, but it’s pretty rare that you get that in the St Leger nowadays anyway.

Maybe I’m looking at the race in an overly positive light because I have been waiting for it for around three months - that is a real and distinct possibility! The reason for that is this is where my second and last ante post bet of the flat season will either land a nice touch or sink like a battered warship. The horse in question is Illinois and 12/1 is the price.

Viewers of the SBK Betting Podcast will know that I put this horse up for the St Leger back in early June. We covered the John Of Gaunt Stakes at Newbury but we had spare time on the podcast for an ante post section, and Illinois for the St Leger was my choice on the back of a promising run in the Lingfield Derby trial in May.

I thought he showed a lot of ability that day as well as a desperation for a longer trip while not being overly in love with the fast ground. I was proven wrong that quick ground isn’t suitable when Illinois won at Royal Ascot, but I still believe we will see a much better performance on Saturday when he will get his ideal conditions.

His subsequent runs in the Great Voltigeur and in that aforementioned Ascot contest have been solid and Wayne Lordan knows him well. An aggressive ride to sit in second or third early will be the order of the day and hopefully he can back up the good value advised on the bet. For what it’s worth, the current price of 7/4 is a fair reflection of his chance.

It could be another fantastic Saturday for trainer Aidan O’Brien, who unsurprisingly boasts plenty of big chances over at Leopardstown. The race he will want to win most is the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes (3.25), where he sends out four of the eight runners but that doesn’t include market leader Economics.

This son of Night Of Thunder is one of the most exciting young horses in training at the minute but he steps up into Group 1 company against some hardened battlers for the very first time and is a short price to continue his winning streak. It would be excellent if he was to succeed, but he represents very little value at 11/10 and I have to oppose him.

Next in the market is O’Brien’s Auguste Rodin, who has been chosen by Ryan Moore. You have to respect him as he’s a six-time Group 1 winner, but I just don’t trust Auguste Rodin anymore and I’m more than happy to try to let him beat me at his current price. He wasn’t overly impressive when winning a weaker renewal of this race last year and was disappointing last time at Ascot.

 Moore’s presence on Auguste Rodin has boosted the price on Los Angeles, and I think he’s a cracking each-way bet at around 11/2. This colt has done nothing wrong so far in his career and actually possesses similar upside to Economics, yet is available at three times his price. 

He should be forwardly ridden given his assured stamina, which is a positive at this track, and I would be surprised if he didn’t hit the three. He’s also a win candidate if Auguste Rodin fails to fire (happens regularly) and Economics doesn’t live up to the billing.

Two more bets for you, both of which come at Chester where the ground is described as heavy at the time of writing. Those grueling conditions are key to the chances of Stressfree, who can finally get his overdue victory in the 1m2f handicap (4.05) under 3lb claimer Sean D Bowen.

David O’Meara’s French import suffered notable traffic issues in his close defeats at York and Doncaster in July, and clearly wasn’t suited by the good to firm ground last time out when losing as a short-priced favourite. 

I’m convinced he is well handicapped off a mark of 84 and he should show that now that he gets deep ground. Stressfree’s two career victories have come on soft and heavy ground at Longchamp and Nottingham respectively.

Finally, I love following Andrew Balding’s two-year-olds at Chester as he owns a ridiculously impressive statline with them (10/33, 30%, +£32.47 to £1 level stakes) over the last five years. Noble Phoenix fits the bill in the opening 7f maiden (1.35). 

This colt is bred to be a seven-furlong specialist (by Arizona out of a Listed-placed mare over this trip) and he showed enough ability first time up to suggest he’s a major player on form. Heavy ground and the ability to handle this unique track are concerns, but he has drawn well and looks to have been found a winnable spot to break his duck.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Noble Phoenix (1.35 Chester) @ 13/2
Los Angeles (3.25 Leopardstown) @ 11/2 each-way
Stressfree (4.05 Chester) @ 9/2

Already advised

Illinois (3.40 Doncaster) @ 12/1