Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Three darts on the flat for Tom Collins this week

Chepstow’s jump season opener will attract the attention of national hunt purists this week, but I’m still firmly in flat mode until the Breeders’ Cup in early November so I’m dialling into Newmarket and York instead.

The Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes (3.00 Newmarket) is usually a good pointer towards the 2,000 Guineas and Derby next year, so it certainly takes centre stage this Saturday. This year’s renewal has come up a touch light in terms of quantity, but there is a lot of quality in the field from Ballydoyle and Godolphin’s strings.

I suppose I’ll start by briefly mentioning the Godolphin runners. Charlie Appleby won this event in 2019 with Pinatubo and he has two entries this year, with William Buick choosing to partner recent Royal Lodge winner Shadow Of Light. Appleby said directly after his last-time-out success that he was done for the year, but they’ve opted for Plan B and come here instead, which I don’t love. He has class but this is a quick turnaround.

The apparent second string is the unbeaten Ancient Truth, who has looked very useful so far but hasn’t been seen for three months and is now seemingly down the pecking order. Reading between the lines is a dangerous game in punting, but why wouldn't Buick opt to ride him? As a result I much prefer short-priced favourite The Lion In Winter, who backed up an effortless debut success by beating a good group in the Acomb at York last time.

I love how he just strolled to the front to dictate the pace, before quickening and staying powerfully through the line. He seems to tick every box for trainer Aidan O’Brien, who excels in this race with five wins in the last nine years. The Lion In Winter is not going to come into his own until he encounters middle distances next season, but he looks sharp enough to go unbeaten at two by plundering the Dewhurst.

My other bet on Newmarket’s Saturday card will be Stanhope Gardens for trainer Ralph Beckett, who I always try to follow with his two-year-olds in September and October as that’s when he has most success. This son of Ghaiyyath will face some promising types in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes (2.25).

It’s very difficult to come from way off the pace at Sandown, especially with an inexperienced juvenile, but Stanhope Gardens made significant ground on his debut at that venue to take third position behind a highly talented type. He came back at Beverley three weeks later and looked far more professional, kicking clear off the front and hitting the line strongly over seven-and-a-half furlongs.

He drew clear with a Charlie Johnston trainee that day who has subsequently hacked up in a novice event, which makes the form look relatively strong, and I love the extra distance for him on Saturday. Hopefully he can take another step forward and throw it down to the likes of Delacroix and Silver Peak.

It’s off to York for the final selection, which is going to be Sir William for trainer William Haggas in the mile nursery (3.15). I was originally interested in the David Menuisier-trained Caspian King in this event, but unfortunately he wasn’t declared so I have jumped ship to the other horse on my shortlist.

Sir William showed plenty of signs of inexperience on his first two outings - they were very much learning days - but he took a notable step forward recently at Haydock when he drew clear with another nice type and unfortunately lost in a photo.

That progression was partly to do with experience, but also the soft ground that he encountered and he should get similar conditions on Saturday. The long homestraight at York should suit this two-year-old given how well he sustained his effort last time out, while an opening mark of 81 seems pretty workable.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Stanhope Gardens (2.25 Newmarket) @ 6/1
The Lion In Winter (3.00 Newmarket) @ Evens
Sir William (3.15 York) @ 7/2