Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins has four fancies on a brilliant Belmont Stakes card

It’s been a dramatic week in New York with smog from Canadian wildfires causing poor air quality and the cancellation of numerous sporting events from Tuesday to Friday.

The good news is that weather forecasters are predicting that Saturday’s card at Belmont Park will get the go-ahead. Fingers crossed that transpires as I cannot wait to get stuck into the 13-race card, which features nine Graded stakes and culminates with the 155th running of the Belmont Stakes (12.02am Sunday) - the third leg in the US Triple Crown.

It hasn’t been a vintage year for the US three-year-olds. The last-minute withdrawal of Forte from the Kentucky Derby opened up the contest to the second tier and Mage duly took advantage. However, his tilt at the Triple Crown ended at Pimlico when he finished an excuse-free third behind National Treasure in a weak edition of the Preakness.

National Treasure is one of nine horses set to line up in this year’s Belmont Stakes, but the aforementioned Forte is rightly garnering all the attention as he bids to get his season back on track after an enforced eight-week layoff. 

If the real Forte turns up then he will prove mighty difficult to beat as he’s undoubtedly the most talented horse in the race - his Florida Derby and Fountain Of Youth victories set the standard. His absence from the track doesn’t really concern me as Todd Pletcher is phenomenal at getting his horses ready, but a couple of middling works and some well-documented blips along the way temper my enthusiasm. 

I hope Forte wins the Belmont and leaves us wondering what might have been if he ran in the KY Derby and Preakness, but I’ll be leaving the race well alone from a punting perspective. Tapit Trice and Hit Show are worthy advisories over this distance.

Shall we get onto the tips? Right you are. My best bet on Saturday is Cody’s Wish in the Grade 1 Met Mile (10.04 Belmont Park) for trainer Bill Mott and rider Julian Alvarado, despite the fact that he has drawn the inside gate. This deep closer does his best running when he’s out in clear air, so don’t expect Alvarado to hug the fence for long. 

Cody’s Wish has quickly become a fan favourite - Google ‘Cody Dorman’ if you want to know more about his heartwarming story - and he’s seeking his fourth straight Grade 1 victory while bidding to enhance his six-from-six record over a mile. Straight up: he’s the best horse in the US right now.

The five-year-old was last seen running over seven furlongs in the Churchill Stakes in early May and he just blew past his rivals to notch an effortless success on a track that generally favoured prominent racers. Given he’s better over this distance, an improved effort is expected and that should see him fly by Zandon, Charge It and Repo Rocks. Four-year-olds have won the last 11 editions of the Met Mile, but I’m confident he can buck that trend.

Another short-priced favourite worth backing on the card is Clairiere, who is 6/5 on the Morning Line for the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes (8.02 Belmont Park). Make sure you snap up the price if she opens odds-against over on these shores.

This daughter of Curlin has been a model of consistency throughout her racing career - she has finished in the first three on 15 of her 18 starts - and has had a protracted duel over the last couple of seasons with rivals Secret Oath and Search Results, both of whom she will face once again.

Clairiere got the better of both those opponents when third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff back in November and, although Secret Oath reversed the form in the Azeri Stakes this March, that was due to Clairiere suffering a pretty torrid trip from off the speed. 

Clairiere had a much better run through last time and pounced late to deny that rival in the Apple Blossom, and I like that trainer Steve Asmussen has kept her fresh and opted for the same route that saw her take the crown in this contest last year. Belmont Park suits her and, providing she behaves herself in the gates where she has had problems in the past, Clairiere can surge late to claim the top prize.

Now onto the tracker horses. Bright Future is the first of them, and he’s worth a few quid in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes (7.22 Belmont Park) as he takes a marked step up in trip from a mile to a mile-and-a-half. This son of Curlin is facing his toughest challenge yet, but he has loads of ability and has been absolutely screaming out for a longer distance. 

Following a maiden win at Gulfstream and third-placed finish in an allowance race here in 2022, Bright Future returned to the track after a long winter break with an eyecatching and devastating victory down in south Florida - form that was given a boost when runner-up Giant Game recorded a nice speed figure in a Churchill Downs success last month.

Bright Future’s sole subsequent start also came at that venue, and he ran better than his placing suggests. That race was dominated by horses who stalked the pace and Irad Ortiz found himself a bit too far back off the bend, which left Bright Future with five-and-a-half lengths and five places to make up in the final two furlongs.

He eroded the deficit and passed all but two of his foes thanks to a closing half-furlong split of 6.17 seconds, the fastest in the field by 0.12s. Sectionals tell you that he only got rolling late in the day and he also passed his rivals on the gallop out, which strongly suggested that he will be suited by further. 

Pletcher has pitched him in the deep end - aggressive placing which feels like an extremely positive move - and I like his claims. Brad Cox’s Warrant is perhaps the main threat, while Lone Rock would be a danger if he bounced back to last year’s form after a dismal recent showing.

Don’t go to bed before the final race on the card as Chad Brown’s Spirit Of St Louis switches from dirt to turf to run in the $80,000 allowance contest (00.47 Sunday, Belmont Park).

There’s plenty of grass form on the damside of his pedigree and any improvement from his two starts to date would make him tough to hold under Irad Ortiz. This $280,000 purchase readily accounted for seven rivals on debut at Aqueduct in February and was unfortunate to suffer a four-wide trip in a small field on his only subsequent outing.

Nevertheless, Spirit Of St Louis showcased nice middle gears to move from last to first around the bend, only to fall short in his bid for the line after exerting too much energy early. He’s drawn inside here, which will help him cover less ground, and this surface switch for a horse with a wicked turn of foot is a big positive.

Saturday’s US Horse Racing Tips

Bright Future (7.22 Belmont Park) @ 7/2
Clairiere (8.02 Belmont Park) @ 13/8
Cody’s Wish (10.04 Belmont Park) @ 11/10
Spirit Of St Louis (00.47 Belmont Park) @ 2/1