Saturday's Horse Racing Tips: Last year’s winner can retain Denman Chase crown

After a thrilling Dublin Racing Festival that provided plenty of Cheltenham clues, Ireland will look to showcase their dominance once again when Filey Bay lines up in Saturday’s Betfair Hurdle.

The Emmet Mullins-trained seven-year-old is likely to open up as the relatively short-priced favourite for one of the most competitive handicaps of the season on the back of victories at Doncaster and Wincanton. Since his latest success (don’t bother watching the replay as fog ruins any viewing spectacle), Filey Bay has been purchased by leading owner JP McManus and also raised 9lb in the weights.

Is that enough to stop him? Who knows. And, although his participation in the race brings extra intrigue, it also provides a horrific variable for punters. I quite like Master Chewy and Aucunrisque at double-figure prices, but they would be token selections rather than confident tips given how tough it is to assess the market leader.

If it’s confidence you’re after, then I’d suggest following me in on Eldorado Allen in the Grade 2 Denman Chase (2.25 Newbury) earlier on the card. The nine-year-old is looking to retain his crown after beating Royal Pagaille and Clan Des Obeaux in this race last year, and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces leads me to believe that this is D-Day. Errant jumping can be his downfall over fences and the headgear might be the catalyst for a much more fluent display.

Prior to a creditable fourth in the King George when last seen, Eldorado Allen finished second in both the Betfair Chase (behind Protektorat) and Charlie Hall (behind Bravemansgame), which gives his form a rock solid look. And, while the majority of his starts have come on deep ground, his form figures in non-Grade 1 races with good in the going description read 111312, so predicted quick conditions should work in his favour.

He has to give Hitman and Fanion D’Estruval weight, but the former has plenty to prove after bleeding in the King George and I’m sure the latter is better over longer trips. The four outsiders are hard to back due to regression, inaccurate jumping or ground worries.

My only other bet on the card will come in the preceding 3m handicap hurdle (1.50 Newbury). There’s no denying that this field is full of horses who are struggling to find some form - that’s proven by Barbados Buck’s, who is on a 25-month winless drought yet still heads the market!

But I’m going to take a chance on the Philip Hobbs-trained Jatiluwih, who gets a key jockey switch from owner-rider David Maxwell to veteran Tom O’Brien. This chestnut has fallen down the handicap from a mark of 148 to just 135 due to seven consecutive defeats, but they have come over a long timeframe (almost three-and-a-half years) and he’s been relatively consistent when he’s made the track.

Turn the clock back to 2019 and Jatiluwih smashed subsequent Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle winner West Cork by five lengths despite giving him 15lb. He’s obviously had his issues since then and I’m by no means indicating that he has retained all of his ability, but the return to good ground is crucial and this is a very winnable race. 

After a slow winter of mediocre racing, the quality dial Stateside has been cranked up a notch over the last fortnight. The Withers (Aqueduct) and Sam F Davis (Tampa) headline this week’s action, but it’s a lesser race at Gulfstream Park that catches my eye.

Nine three-year-old colts go to post for the $84,000 maiden special weight (9.37 Gulfstream) contest and will be headed by Morning Line favourite Arthur’s Ride, who represents the in-form Bill Mott. 

This grey son of Tapit showed ability at Saratoga last summer and has worked nicely in his build-up off a long layoff, so he has to be considered a major threat. However, speed seemed to be his biggest asset last year and I’m not convinced by the step up to a mile, while the booking of 55-year-old rider Edgar Prado (0/6 this meet) is a touch confusing.

I much prefer Case, who worked lights out before his debut on New Year’s Eve and was unfortunate to bump into a talented Todd Pletcher trainee called Shesterkin, who has subsequently finished second to a Kentucky Derby-bound stablemate.

Things didn’t go to plan for Case that day, either. Not only did he take a pretty hefty bump out of the gates, but he was also on the rough end of three nudges up the Gulfstream Park homestraight from the eventual winner, who’s frame is substantially larger. What looked like a winning run came to a halt pretty quickly, but he seemed somewhat unfortunate.

Case has recently worked alongside Wolfie’s Dynaghost, who won on his comeback on January 28, and trainer Jonathan Thomas is currently striking at 33% (4/12) at this meet. He’s penned in at 3/1 on the Morning Line, but anything bigger than 9/4 seems fair against this group.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Jatiluwih (1.50 Newbury) @ 7.2
Eldorado Allen (2.25 Newbury) @ 3.8
Case (9.37 Gulfstream Park) @ 3.25 (9/4) or bigger